Carrying the golden signboard of the global semiconductor foundry leader, TSMC's voice and position have once again emerged. After a legal conference, not only did its own stocks plummet, but it also "dragged down" electronic industry companies such as Samsung Electronics, Hon Hai, MediaTek, and Sunrise.
After the legal conference, on April 18th local time (evening of April 19th Beijing time), TSMC's US stock price fell short and opened low, closing down 4.86%, ranking second to last among Philadelphia semiconductor index stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.66% on the same day. TSMC has weakened, and semiconductor related stocks such as Samsung Electronics, MediaTek, Sunrise, and MediaTek have also fallen.
TSMC US stock daily candlestick chart
The TSMC Law Conference is not only about the company's performance report, but also about the leader's perception of the industry's temperature. Against the backdrop of weak recovery in the semiconductor industry, the concerns conveyed by TSMC have been amplified.
What did the online French speaking session on April 18th say? To sum up, the recovery process of the semiconductor market has fallen short of expectations, with AI leading the way.
The core point that surprised investors is that TSMC has lowered its outlook for the global semiconductor, global wafer foundry, and automotive markets this year.
TSMC President Wei Zhejia candidly stated that the overall semiconductor market will experience a gentler and gradual recovery, including the semiconductor and wafer foundry industries being freed from sharp inventory adjustments and the low base period of 2023. Therefore, the growth rate of the semiconductor industry, excluding memory, for the whole year of 2024 will be revised down to 10% (previously expected to exceed 10%), and the growth rate of the semiconductor foundry industry will be revised down to 15% to 17% (previously expected to be 20%). "It is expected that the overall semiconductor market will experience a mild and larger scale recovery in 2024."
From the application side perspective, AI is the most optimistic, while the automotive chip market is the weakest performing, and consumer electronics are showing a weak recovery. Wei Zhejia mentioned——
The demand for traditional servers is lukewarm, but the demand for AI processors continues to be strong. In 2024, the company's AI processor revenue is expected to more than double compared to the same period last year. Originally, the visibility was expected to reach 2027, but now it has been extended to 2028. It is expected that server AI processors will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 50% in the next five years, and the revenue share will exceed 20% by 2028;
Automotive chips are still in the destocking stage. Three months ago, it was expected that the automotive market would grow this year, but now it seems that it will turn into a recession;
The demand for smartphones is slowly recovering, while PC has bottomed out and rebounded but the recovery is slow. The Internet of Things and consumer applications are still adjusting.
After reviewing institutional research reports that have focused on TSMC since April, the high computing power demand brought by AI is seen as the growth engine of TSMC.
For the entire semiconductor industry, institutions also generally rely on AI for growth.
Everbright Securities stated in its interpretation of TSMC's latest financial report that the overall recovery of the semiconductor industry is slow, and strong demand for AI has led to structural differentiation. It is expected that the semiconductor industry will be in a slow recovery phase in 2024. Semiconductor companies have shown differentiation in performance, with Asma's performance closely related to the semiconductor cycle leading to poor performance, while TSMC has benefited from the structural pull of AI demand leading to better performance. The institution emphasizes that it is optimistic about the sustained strong demand for AI and suggests paying attention to the AI computing power industry chain.
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