The prototype of the movie "Big Short": Spicy review of the US stock market: The Fed's interest rate cut is the biggest threat!
chemistry_130
发表于 2024-4-3 12:39:52
3754
0
0
Steve Eisman, a big short seller, said on Tuesday that if the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this year, a foam would form in the US stock market. He believes that the Federal Reserve should remain stagnant and maintain the current high interest rates this year, citing the fact that the US economy is currently operating well.
"My view is that the economy is in good condition. I personally think the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates this year," he said in a program: "What I really worry is that if the Federal Reserve does cut interest rates, I guess the market will become full of foam, and then we will encounter real problems. So the Federal Reserve should do nothing, and then wait for the data to weaken."
Eisman is the prototype of the movie "Big Short", and as a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, he is known for short selling subprime mortgages before the global financial crisis broke out.
Although the "foam theory" still prevails in the market, the strong earnings growth of large technology stocks has pushed up the target price of the 2024 S&P 500 index by Wall Street veterans. However, expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened after personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and ISM manufacturing data showed the latest inflation signals.
Despite this, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated his plan to cut interest rates three times this year at the FOMC meeting in March, but Eisman opposed this dovish stance.
He believes that all the data reminds people not to rush to expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and adds that unemployment is falling, wages are rising, and the only thing worth complaining about is high inflation.
"Employment opportunities are still scarce, so consumers are good. So why do you want to lower interest rates to destroy it?" he said.
In fact, it's not just Eisman who thinks so. San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Mary Daly also stated on the same day that the "three rate cuts within the year" reiterated by officials last month is a reasonable expectation, but there is currently no rush to reduce borrowing costs.
"I think this is a very reasonable basic expectation. However, given the strong growth momentum of the US economy, there is currently no urgency to adjust the central bank's interest rates, and staying put is the right policy at the moment," she said.
Finally, Eisman emphasized that there is nothing worse than the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates first and then raising them when necessary, as historical lessons have proven.
"One thing I often think of is that in 1999 and 2000, the market must have been in the midst of a foam. But what killed the foam was not the foam itself, but the Federal Reserve's sharp increase in interest rates, which plunged the economy into recession," he said.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
-
11月21日、2024世界インターネット大会烏鎮サミットで、創業者、CEOの周源氏が大会デジタル教育フォーラムとインターネット企業家フォーラムでそれぞれ講演、発言したことを知っている。周源氏によると、デジタル教 ...
- 不正经的工程师
- 昨天 16:36
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
スターバックスが中国事業の株式売却の可能性を検討していることが明らかになった。 11月21日、外国メディアによると、スターバックスは中国事業の株式売却を検討している。関係者によると、スターバックスは中国事 ...
- 献世八宝掌
- 前天 16:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【意法半導体CEO:中国市場は非常に重要で華虹と協力を展開】北京時間11月21日、意法半導体(STM.N)は投資家活動の現場で、同社が中国ウェハー代工場の華虹公司(688347.SH)と協力していると発表した。伊仏半導体 ...
- 黄俊琼
- 前天 14:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【ナスダック中国金龍指数は1%下落した。人気の中概株の多くは下落した】現地時間11月21日、ナスダック中国金龍指数は1%下落し、人気の中概株の多くは下落し、必死に10%超下落し、愛奇芸は7%超下落し、百度は6%近く ...
- 比尔992
- 昨天 11:57
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏