After a week of fierce fighting, the three major U.S. stock indexes finally recovered most of their losses on Friday, including a 1.6% gain in the Nasdaq and a 0.3% decline in the Dow.
Based on the recent situation, it is not difficult to find that the US Treasury yield is playing an increasingly important role in the financial market. Some Fed officials mentioned that the factors that led to the surge in US bond yields were mainly from economic data that was significantly stronger than expected.
Looking ahead to next week, the biggest piece of data will be Thursday's U.S. CPI report. The current market forecast is for CPI to slow slightly to 3.6% in September from 3.7% in August, while core CPI will slow to 4.1% from 4.3%.
If the CPI surprises, not only will stocks and Treasuries move dramatically, but central bankers could also make more aggressive comments on monetary policy. According to the schedule, nearly 10 Fed officials will appear one after another next week, including the new "No. 2" Jefferson is scheduled to speak on Tuesday.
With international oil prices fluctuating more than $10 this week, the monthly crude oil market reports of Opec and the International Energy Agency, as well as the Energy outlook report of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), will also be the focus of investors.
Separately, Congress is likely to get a new speaker of the House of Representatives next week. After McCarthy's historic vote to replace him, Republicans decided to meet on October 10 to hear from candidates and vote on the election on October 11.
Former US President Donald Trump said that if Republicans cannot reach a consensus on a new speaker of the House, he will take the job if necessary, which could be for "30 days, 60 days or 90 days." Trump stressed that the short term is because he is "running for president."
In addition, the US stock market third quarter earnings season will be officially kicked off next week, small Mo, Wells Fargo, Citi and other large financial institutions are scheduled to release results before the market on Friday. Before that, the results of PepsiCo and Domino's Pizza are also worth watching, and the shares of these two companies have experienced varying degrees of decline recently.
Some analysts believe that food stocks are being hit by the growing popularity of diet pills. According to a survey by the University of Toronto, after taking diet pills, patients tend to reduce the number of meals and snacks, reduce the intake of alcohol and carbonated drinks, and go to fast food restaurants and pizza restaurants significantly less.
An overview of next week's major economic events (Beijing time) :
Monday (Oct. 9) : Euro Zone October Sentix investor confidence Index, Dallas Fed President Logan's speech on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy, September Conference Board Employment Trends Index, Nobel Prize in Economics
Tuesday (Oct. 10) : Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks, Bank of England releases minutes of financial policy meeting, NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for September, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on U.S. economic outlook
Wednesday (October 11) : Fed Governor Paul Waller speaks on monetary policy, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, San Francisco Fed President Daley speaks, Fed Governor Bowman speaks, US September PPI annual rate, Republican members of the US House of Representatives meet to vote for a new speaker of the House
Thursday (Oct. 12) : EIA releases monthly Short-term Energy Outlook, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks, Fed releases September monetary policy meeting minutes, Boston Fed President Collins speaks, IEA releases monthly crude oil market report, Opec releases monthly crude oil market report, European Central Bank releases September monetary policy meeting minutes, US September unseasonally adjusted CPI Annual U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 7, EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending Oct. 6
Friday (October 13) : Atlanta Fed President Bostick delivers opening remarks at an event, Boston Fed President Collins speaks at a banking conference, Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks at a conference organized by the Institute of International Finance, US Import Price Index for September, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on the economic outlook for 2023, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks The preliminary University of Michigan consumer Confidence Index for October