Recently, it was reported that Apple has decided to suspend the development project of Micro LED smartwatches.
Correspondingly, the relevant supplier AMS OSRAM (Ames Osram) announced on its official website that it has decided to reassess the company's Micro LED strategy after learning of the unexpected cancellation of a cornerstone project in its Micro LED program.
Some argue that this is simply the cancellation of the collaboration between Apple and Ames Osram, but others point out that this is evidence of Apple's cancellation of its micro LED screen smartwatch development plan.
For example, Guo Minggui, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, stated on social media that Apple has cancelled its development plan because Apple believes that Micro LEDs cannot significantly enhance product added value, coupled with high production costs and lack investment benefits.
Guo Minggui also revealed that Apple has disbanded most of the Micro LED development team, and currently there is no visibility of Micro LED related plans.
As the exclusive chip supplier, the cancellation of the project means that Apple no longer has plans to mass produce Micro LED devices in the future.
"Apple has decided to suspend the development and application of its Micro LED project, which will have a significant impact on the entire Micro LED industry. This move may not only delay the time for Micro LED technology to achieve large-scale commercial applications, but also weaken the possibility of leading and promoting the rapid maturity process of the industry chain through well-known brands," said Chen Xuecheng, senior analyst at Sigmantell's mobile division, to 21st Century Business Herald reporters
Why choose?
As a new type of display technology, Micro LED is different from traditional LCD and OLED display solutions. Micro LED is composed of millions of tiny LEDs, each of which can independently emit light. Therefore, it has advantages such as high brightness, high resolution, and low energy consumption.
At present, there are two main development trends in the application scenarios of Micro LEDs: one is the need for commercial ultra large screens with ultra-high resolution, and the other is the need for wearable device displays such as AR/VR that consume less power.
Chen Xuecheng told reporters that Apple chose to use Micro LED display technology for the first time on its Apple Watch Ultra, mainly because the screen size of the smartwatch is relatively small, and the difficulty of large-scale transfer technology is relatively low. It is suitable for verifying Micro LED technology on this application and promoting it to other consumer electronics applications such as smartphones.
The addition of top brands will quickly drive the development of the industry chain, especially Apple, which has strong appeal and influence. Indeed, in recent years, many manufacturers in the industry chain have been investing in the Micro LED track.
According to statistics from Smart Ya and Jiwei Consulting, Chinese companies account for more than half of the top 15 global Micro LED patent applications.
It can be seen that the core display companies are mostly laying out Micro LEDs, but there may be differences in investment level and technology route selection. But according to institutional data, the upstream and downstream of this segmented market are in a growth trend.
From a chip perspective, according to TrendForce Consulting, the market value of Micro LED chips is expected to reach $27 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 92%.
With the increase in shipments of existing applications and the launch of new applications, it is expected that the market value of Micro LED chips will approach $580 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 136% from 2022 to 2027.
In terms of panels, Omdia's previous forecast data showed that the global output value of Micro LED panels will reach 796 million US dollars by 2026.
Why give up?
Overall, the Micro LED industry will continue to maintain a development trend in the coming years, but new display technologies will also experience fluctuations in the industrialization process.
TrendForce, a consulting firm, pointed out to 21st Century Business Herald that the previously confirmed suppliers for Apple Watch included AMS OSRAM using Malaysia's 8-inch factory to provide Micro LED vertical chips, as well as South Korean panel giant LG Display responsible for glass driver backboards and mass transfer production processes. The failure of chip supply cooperation now means that the originally planned listing plan for 2026 may be difficult to achieve.
There are multiple factors behind it. At the technical level, Chen Xuecheng stated that although Micro LED's massive transfer technology has made significant progress, it is still immature in achieving large-scale production, especially in improving yield and reducing costs, which still need to overcome many difficulties.
When it comes to costs, Jibang Consulting pointed out that the limited supply chain size has led to high costs for Micro LED panels, which may be 2.5-3 times higher than similar sized OLED panels. In addition, issues such as mass production of Micro LED vertical chips and driver architecture also need to be addressed.
Chen Xuecheng further analyzed that in the direction of large-scale applications, the increase in display area and exponential increase in display pixels make it difficult to achieve high-precision and high yield transfer using existing transfer technologies, resulting in high costs; At present, the biggest bottleneck in the large-scale production of Micro LED is still the massive transfer and testing repair. The small-sized AR direction requires high pixel density, and the current bottleneck mainly lies in the aspect of full-color.
Although Apple's braking in Micro LED has had a certain impact on the industry, it does not mean that the industrialization development of Micro LED will come to a halt. Jibang Consulting believes that Micro LED is still in its early stages of development, and Apple's investment will help drive the positive development of the entire industry. In particular, the introduction of watches is one of the heavyweight products in Micro LED application products in the next 2-3 years, with a few shipments having the opportunity to reach the million unit level, which is crucial for industry development. The setback in the development of the Micro LED version of the Apple Watch is only temporary, and there is still a considerable chance for the case to continue.
Besides watches, AR is also a promising direction in the industry.
"In the traditional field of consumer electronics, LCD and OLED dominate the market with their highly mature technology and significant cost advantages. Micro LED technology is difficult to break through in the short term," Chen Xuecheng said. "However, in new application areas such as AR head display, Micro LED has advantages that other display technologies cannot match. Therefore, the AR head display field is likely to become an important breakthrough for it to achieve commercialization and widespread application first."