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The latest data from the South Korean Bureau of Statistics shows that the total fertility rate in South Korea dropped to 0.70 in the second quarter of this year, setting a record low for a single season. In the second quarter of this year, the number of newborns in South Korea was 56087, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, marking the 91st consecutive month of decline in the number of newborns in South Korea.
In order to further understand the population situation, the Budget Policy Office of the South Korean National Assembly released a report on the outlook for the population situation on October 24th. The report calculates the total population based on the premise that the total fertility rate has remained at 0.7 without rebounding. The results show that by 2040, the total population of South Korea will decrease to 49.16 million, a decrease of 5.17% from 51.84 million in 2020. The report also points out that the population decline mainly occurs among people under the age of 15. By 2040, the population of children under the age of 14 will significantly decrease by 49.6%, almost halving to only 3.18 million. Especially, the population of infants and young children under the age of 6 is expected to significantly decline from 2.63 million in 2020 to 1.3 million in 2040, a decrease of over 50%.
The data shows that the total fertility rate usually needs to reach at least 2.1 in order to maintain the level of generational replacement. According to Korean media reports, among the 38 member countries of the OECD, South Korea is the only country with a total fertility rate below 1. Experts predict that South Korea's fertility rate will once again hit a historic low this year.
In recent years, China has also faced challenges such as a decline in the number of newborns, a decline in marriage rates, and an aging population. On October 12th, the National Health Commission released a statistical bulletin on the development of China's health industry in 2022. The data showed that the population born in 2022 was 9.56 million, of which 38.9% had two children, 15.0% had three or more children, and the population born with one child was less than 4.5 million.
Looking back at past data:
The decline in the number of newborns in China: According to data from the China Statistical Yearbook, the annual number of newborns in China showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2011 to 2020, and the birth rate has also been declining. In 2011, the number of newborns in China was 17.93 million, with a birth rate of 1.327%. However, with the decline in the willingness of eligible couples in China to have children, the number of newborns each year is gradually decreasing. In 2020, the number of newborns in China was only 12.031 million, with a birth rate of only 0.852%. By 2021, the number of newborns in China had dropped to 10.62 million, with a birth rate of only 0.752%, both of which were the lowest in the past decade.
The new policy of "Comprehensive Two Child" has led to an increase in the number of newborns: In 2014, the policy of having two children was gradually implemented nationwide. Since the last peak of childbirth in China occurred between 1985 and 1990, starting from 2015, with the implementation of the "Comprehensive Two Child" policy, the number of eligible women giving birth will reach its peak. According to predictions, the number of newborns in China will increase by 7.5 million between 2015 and 2019.
According to China Business News, Qiao Jie, an academician of the CAE Member and director of the medical department of Peking University, predicted at the forum on medical innovation and science and technology frontier that the number of births in 2023 would be about 7 million to 8 million. Qiao Jie pointed out that at present, the fertility of women of childbearing age is worrying, mainly including a further reduction in the number of women of childbearing age, an increase in infertility rates, and a high incidence of adverse pregnancies.
Another population expert and special researcher from the Guangdong Provincial Government Counselor's Office, Dong Yuquan, also pointed out that measures to encourage childbirth in various regions are relatively insufficient, especially for one child. However, the number of children born with three is already relatively small. To significantly improve the practical effect of active childbirth policies, it is necessary to shift the focus of maternity subsidies forward and consolidate the basic principle of one child childbirth. He emphasized that "encouraging childbirth should start from the first child.
At present, the Chinese government has taken a series of measures. For example, encouraging the adjustment and optimization of fertility policies to increase fertility rates; Promote the reform of marriage and family policies and create a favorable marriage environment; Strengthen the construction of the health and social security system for the elderly, and provide better elderly care services. However, solving population problems is a long-term process that requires the joint efforts of the entire society. Governments, social organizations, families, and individuals should strengthen cooperation to jointly address population challenges and contribute to achieving sustainable population development and social prosperity.
Forward Looking Economist APP Information Group
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