Economist Survey: The Bank of England has completed a rate hike and is expected to maintain interest rates at 5.25% until the second quarter of next year
穿越夜时空簿
发表于 2023-10-24 14:33:58
1341
0
0
The vast majority of economists surveyed believe that the Bank of England may have ended its tightening policy and will maintain interest rates at 5.25% on November 2nd. However, they warn that the possibility of another rate hike this year remains high.
In this survey conducted from October 18th to 23rd, 61 out of 73 economists believe that although the inflation rate unexpectedly stabilized at 6.7% in September, which is the highest among all major developed economies, the Bank of England will not take any action next week, which is also in line with market expectations.
James Smith of Dutch International Group said, "The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged in September, and there hasn't been much data since then to change this stance. The data we have - wages, inflation - is not much different from everyone's expectations. The most important part is that the impact of previous rate hikes is still evident
Only 12 economists expect interest rates to rise by 25 basis points to 5.50% at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
However, out of the 28 respondents who answered another question, 16 stated that the likelihood of another interest rate hike this year is still high. Despite a cumulative interest rate hike of 515 basis points since December 2021, the inflation rate in the UK is still more than three times the central bank's 2% target.
Elizabeth Martins of HSBC pointed out that "to some extent, when core inflation and service inflation are in a predetermined downward trend, the Monetary Policy Committee may wish to shift towards more neutral guidance. However, we believe that policymakers are not yet prepared to make such changes
Bank of England Governor Bailey stated last week that the inflation data for September was not far from the Bank of England's expectations, and added that the slowdown in core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, was "quite encouraging".
According to the survey, economists generally expect the inflation rate to gradually decrease within the predicted range, but it will not reach the target until the second quarter of 2025. The average inflation rate is expected to be 3.0% next year and 2.2% in 2025.
Most economists say that the Bank of England will not cut interest rates for the first time until at least July next year, with a median expectation of a 25 basis point cut in the third quarter. About one-third of economists expect the Bank of England to take action earlier.
This expected median indicates that the Bank of England will slightly lag behind the Federal Reserve, and another survey shows that economists generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing policies in the second quarter of next year, in line with the expected timetable of the European Central Bank.
It is predicted that the Bank of England will cut bank interest rates by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter of next year and will lower them to 4.50% by the end of the year.
Slow growth
The median forecast shows that the UK will avoid an economic recession, but the outlook is not optimistic. After a possible contraction of 0.1% in the previous quarter, it is expected that growth will remain flat year-on-year this year, and only barely achieve a growth of 0.1% in the first two quarters of next year.
Smith from Dutch International Group said, "This is a story of very slow growth in the coming quarters, not a complete and severe recession
Nevertheless, the current market generally expects a highly anticipated PMI survey to be released later on Tuesday to show that business activity has contracted again this month.
According to the survey, 12 out of 31 economists believe that the UK economy will experience a recession, with two consecutive quarters of contraction, compared to only 8 out of 23 economists surveyed in September.
Economists expect a growth rate of 0.4% for the entire year of 2024, but the economy will rebound and grow by 1.4% in 2025, slightly lower than the median of 0.5% and 1.5% surveyed last month.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- He Xiaopeng: In the second half of this year, Xiaopeng will enter more right-hand drive markets including the UK
- The Bank of Japan sends a heavy signal! There are still reasons to raise interest rates again
- The Federal Reserve is heavyweight! There is a strong call for a 50 basis point interest rate cut during the 'Super Central Bank Week' globally
- Fearless of the resurgence of Black Monday? More than half of economists expect Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again in December
- Swiss central bank announces interest rate cut! Europe sets off a storm of interest rate cuts
- Suddenly announced! Bank of New Zealand cuts interest rate by 50 basis points!
- Global highlights for next week: The European Central Bank steps onto the path of accelerating interest rate cuts, while the US stock market welcomes a season of low expected financial reports
- The latest revelation confirms that the Bank of Japan is not in a hurry to raise interest rates in October, as the yen exchange rate falls to a critical level
- The Bank of Canada's' big move '! Cutting interest rates by 50 basis points heralds a new phase of monetary easing
- Chairman of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: Bank of Japan interest rates may hit 1% by March 2026
-
11月21日、2024世界インターネット大会烏鎮サミットで、創業者、CEOの周源氏が大会デジタル教育フォーラムとインターネット企業家フォーラムでそれぞれ講演、発言したことを知っている。周源氏によると、デジタル教 ...
- 不正经的工程师
- 昨天 16:36
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
アリババは、26億5000万ドルのドル建て優先無担保手形と170億元の人民元建て優先無担保手形の定価を発表した。ドル債の発行は2024年11月26日に終了する予定です。人民元債券の発行は2024年11月28日に終了する予定だ ...
- SOGO
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
スターバックスが中国事業の株式売却の可能性を検討していることが明らかになった。 11月21日、外国メディアによると、スターバックスは中国事業の株式売却を検討している。関係者によると、スターバックスは中国事 ...
- 献世八宝掌
- 前天 16:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【意法半導体CEO:中国市場は非常に重要で華虹と協力を展開】北京時間11月21日、意法半導体(STM.N)は投資家活動の現場で、同社が中国ウェハー代工場の華虹公司(688347.SH)と協力していると発表した。伊仏半導体 ...
- 黄俊琼
- 前天 14:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏