According to Tend ê ncias Consultaria's prediction, with the implementation of a series of public and private investment plans in the next decade, the northeastern region of Brazil will become the fastest growing region in the country's economy between 2025 and 2033.
The economic recession in Brazil, which began in 2014, interrupted the golden period of higher than national average economic growth in the Northeast region, although its growth level was lower than that of the northern and central western regions. In the coming years, the northern and central western regions will continue to maintain a good economic growth momentum, which is also driven by more investment, with the development of agriculture, animal husbandry, and animal husbandry in the central and western regions being the most prominent.
Lucas Assis, an economist and analyst at Tend ê ncias Consultaria, pointed out that the growth rates in these three regions are greater than those in southern and southeastern Brazil, but this does not necessarily mean a significant reduction in social inequality in the country's regions, although this is good news.
For example, the planned investment in the southeast exceeded the expected investment in the northeast in terms of amount, but was smaller in terms of economic scale. In other words, in more developed regions, the contribution of these foreign investments has a relatively small impact on local economic development.
&Quot; From the interannual changes in GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the Northeast region will be the region leading Brazil's growth in the next decade. In the coming years, more investment will drive the development of the region, but the southeast will still be the main engine of Brazil's economy; Assis said. Assis said:" Although people have expectations for economic growth in northeastern Brazil, this expectation will not be reversed with the improvement of economic heterogeneity in Brazil for at least the next decade. Economic vulnerability and significant inequality in socio-economic aspects may still exist;.
In the northeast, the consulting company highlighted the Abreu e Lima oil refinery built by Petrobras, a Brazilian national oil company, with an investment of approximately $8 billion in the city of Iboiuca in the state of Banambuco, to expand Brazil's oil refining capacity. The first set of refining equipment has been in operation since 2014, with a daily refining capacity of 115000 barrels. The second production line project of the factory will increase its refining capacity by 150000 barrels.
In the same state of Benanbuco, Stellantis Automotive Manufacturing Group will invest approximately $1.5 billion to expand its supplier industrial park in Goyana City. Another investment highlight is the investment of approximately $830 million by Noxis Energy to establish a refinery at the Pecham Complex in Saila.
Ecio Costa, an economics professor at the Federal University of Benan Buco (UFPE) and partner at CEDES Consultaria e Planejamento, emphasized the importance of investing in the new PAC (Brazilian Accelerated Growth Plan) program, which invests nearly 100 billion reais in Benan Buco (700 billion reais in the entire Northeast region)& Quot; The demand for infrastructure investment in the Northeast region is enormous, but we must see that in reality, how much investment will no longer just stay on paper, but is truly being realized. The completion rate of PAC projects in the previous Brazilian economic growth plan was very low& Quot;. Almost half of the engineering lists in Brazil's latest version of the economic acceleration plan are unfinished commitment plans from previous versions of the plan.
He said that one of the bottlenecks in the economic development of Benanbuco Oblast is the construction of road infrastructure. With the implementation of the state's transportation road engineering and the restoration of certain sections of the BR-104 federal highway parallel to the BR-101 highway that crosses the inland region, the road infrastructure is beginning to improve. He also mentioned the impact of the Bolsa Fam í lia program on industries such as the food and beverage industry. In the northern region of Brazil, Tend ê ncias Consulting emphasized Vale's mining investment in Para state and is committed to reducing logistics bottlenecks in agricultural production and circulation in the central and western regions. In the central region of Brazil, in addition to the growth and development of agricultural and livestock enterprises, there are three new factory projects in the pulp and paper industry in the state of Mato Grosso South.
Lucas Assis of Tend ê ncias said that one of the main risks in achieving these predictions and investments is the performance of projects related to the public sector& Quot; He said:" The deteriorating financial situation will continue to limit public expenditure. Even private investment may be constrained by factors such as high interest rates, high inflation, and increased global uncertainty, which limit the flow of resources to emerging developing countries. The consulting company predicts that the average growth rate in Brazil between 2025 and 2033 will be 2.5%, similar to the growth rate from 1996 to 2005, but lower than the average economic growth rate (3.5%) from 2006 to 2014, which was before the Brazilian economic recession.
Compilation: Marcos
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