In this round of the financial war between China and the United States, although we inevitably encountered some shocks, we also have to admit that due to the strict adherence of the management to the financial defense line and the gradual collection of water when the United States opened the floodgates, it has to some extent prevented the influx of hot money from the United States, thus avoiding the risk of a fatal blow.
But it is precisely because they have avoided the risk of being fatally hit that many people's feelings about this round of financial war are not deep. The so-called feelings only stay at some problems that have arisen in the domestic economy. The domestic economy is no longer viable, especially in the context of the rhythm of foreign public opinion, and they are also dissatisfied with domestic policies.
The reason for dissatisfaction is indeed related to domestic economic issues, which cannot be denied. However, the root cause is largely due to a lack of clear understanding of the logic behind management's actions.
Everyone knows the economic crisis in Southeast Asia. At the end of the 20th century, the economy of Southeast Asian countries developed rapidly. With the crazy influx of hot money, the economy seemed to be in good shape on the surface. But with the recovery of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase, the dollar entered a strong cycle, and short-term arbitrage of international hot money flowed back to the United States. The foam of Southeast Asian economies was blown by the inflow of foreign capital, Ultimately, due to the fragility of the internal financial system and inadequate response measures, the 1997 Asian financial crisis was triggered.
In recent years, the Chinese economy has continued to improve, hot money has also flooded in, and the United States has also launched a crazy interest rate hike. Therefore, compared to the Southeast Asian economic crisis, if the management failed to achieve substantial breakthroughs in the domestic supply side reform and industrial upgrading that began in 2015 during this round of financial war, and did not strictly adhere to the financial defense line, then after experiencing the US super flooding during this epidemic and the subsequent crazy interest rate hikes, China may already be experiencing a super large version of the "Southeast Asian crisis", The return of the whole nation to poverty has long appeared, and now the United States no longer needs to repeatedly delay us, and even can hold us down on the ground and repeatedly rub us.
So, do those who are swayed by foreign public opinion really feel that the so-called American and Western elites are providing advice and suggestions for us, and are they really thinking for the sake of the Chinese economy? Little did they know that even the American elites who asked the US government to borrow were not simply to stimulate their domestic economy.
As is well known, a very fatal point in today's Sino US game is that as long as one party experiences a large-scale economic or financial crisis, the other party can seize the opportunity to rapidly expand its global influence. The party that falls prematurely may have no turning back. This is also why in the past few years, we have not used market economy methods to clear the situation, but instead, under the premise of maintaining stability, let local thunderstorms bear the risk of global instability first and pay for it.
The United States is also well aware of this. So since the Silicon Valley bank thunderstorm, as long as there is a thunderstorm, the US management will definitely step in to rescue it. Similar to bank crises, they even use methods that infringe on the private property rights of equity investors, and overseas investors are even being robbed of their money. In short, at all costs, we will never let a global thunderstorm happen.
To put it bluntly, even if the US financial market is already critically ill, as long as there is no global collapse, it is a headache that cures the head and a foot that cures the foot. This is also a fundamental change in the current top-level strategy of the United States, and a new underlying logic of the Sino US game.
In fact, the United States is also very helpless about this, after all, it invested too much resources in the early stage to suppress China, resulting in huge sunk costs. If the suppression is stopped now, it is not realistic, and China must help them pay the bill.
From this perspective, as long as there is a problem in the future, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to immediately release water to rescue the market, especially in order to provide favorable conditions for the 2024 election. Next year, the Federal Reserve will at least lower interest rates to release some water.
What should we do about this?
For us, what we pursue is the River Crossing people, but under the gradual decoupling and crazy encirclement of the United States and us, we have also experienced a serious shortage of domestic demand, which has forced us to stimulate.
Similarly, in today's United States, internal diseases are also difficult to treat, and the "three highs" have already overwhelmed the American people. At the same time, social tearing is constantly intensifying, from black and white people to Democrats and Republicans, and then to social elites and the grassroots, all are tearing apart. And its external environment is also extremely dangerous. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, Palestinian Israeli conflict and other geopolitical conflicts continue to emerge. If these problems of internal and external difficulties are not effectively solved, it is futile to stare at us, but they may face an unimaginable outcome. And as the 2024 US election approaches, they also need a relatively good internal and external environment.
So, the United States is likely to have a periodic discussion with us, promising to buy some Chinese made products to lower the domestic "three highs". At the same time, we promise not to continue to introduce new policies to suppress us in the near future, hoping that we will cooperate with their global strategy, including buying more US bonds.
Therefore, for us, there will also be a brief window period during this stage. Through this, on the one hand, we can continue to upgrade our competitive industry, including the military industry system, and prepare more major weapons; On the other hand, we will continue to expand our economic power map, find more orders for our excess production capacity and industrial upgrading, and maintain stability in enterprises and employment.
However, overall, the overall strategy between China and the United States in the game will not undergo significant changes in the short term, and will still focus on fighting with peace as a supplement. So, after this phased window period has passed, there may be another wave of baseless encirclement and suppression, but we don't need to worry too much. As long as we grasp this window period, we can face it calmly, but if we cannot grasp it, the results can also be imagined.
Looking at the current game between China and the United States, it actually tells us a truth: any complaint or coercion is just an emotional release, and cannot truly solve the problem. Since everyone has discovered the problem, it is necessary to recognize its essence, and then the whole country can work together to solve the problem, and everything can be easily solved. And endless complaints and coercion will only become opportunities for others to crush you!