Nvidia controls about 80% of the artificial intelligence chip market, and Sam Altman, the father of ChatGPT, is attempting to reshape the global semiconductor industry.
OpenAI CEO Sam Ultraman is seeking $5-7 trillion in funding for AI chip projects to enhance global chip manufacturing capabilities. He hopes to build dozens of chip manufacturing plants in the coming years. However, raising trillions of dollars or a relatively easy part of Ultraman's chip plan also faces challenges such as talent recruitment, cyclical markets, and a lack of viable chip manufacturers.
However, NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun joked that $7 trillion "clearly can buy all GPUs.". Recently, at the World Government Summit held in Dubai, Huang Renxun stated that due to expected advancements in computing technology, the cost of developing artificial intelligence will not be as high as Ultraman wants to raise. "You cannot assume that you will buy more computers," Huang Renxun said. "You must also assume that computers will become faster, so the total amount you need will not be that much."
Raising trillions of dollars to reshape the global semiconductor industry
In the past year's artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia's GPUs (graphics processors) have taken the lead, supporting large models for OpenAI, Meta, and other financially strong startups. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced last month that the company plans to have approximately 350000 Nvidia flagship H100 processors by the end of this year.
Currently, Nvidia controls about 80% of the artificial intelligence chip market share, and Ultraman is trying to change this situation.
Ultraman has long been concerned about the supply and demand issues of AI chips. He has stated that the limitations of AI chips hinder the development of OpenAI, often complaining about not having enough GPUs to support OpenAI's exploration of general artificial intelligence, and also complaining about the cost issues of Nvidia chips.
Ultraman stated on social media X on February 8th that the world needs more artificial intelligence infrastructure, including wafer fab capacity, energy, data centers, etc., than the artificial intelligence infrastructure currently planned to be built. "Establishing large-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure and resilient supply chains is crucial for economic competitiveness. OpenAI will attempt to provide assistance."
And Ultraman's new project focuses on improving global chip manufacturing capabilities, and he is in talks with investors including the UAE government. According to the Wall Street Journal, an insider said that Ultraman needs to raise $5-7 trillion in funds. Ultraman has also met with US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and other US officials in recent weeks to discuss his plans.
This investment will dwarf the current global semiconductor industry, with global chip sales of $527 billion and semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales of $100 billion last year. According to corporate financing standards, the amount discussed by Altman is also absurdly large, even larger than treasury bond of some major economies and large sovereign wealth funds. As the two most valuable companies in the United States, Microsoft and Apple have a total market value of approximately $6 trillion.
Plan to build dozens of chip factories in the coming years
Ultraman is quite interested in chip manufacturing. In 2018, Ultraman personally invested in Rain Neurographics, an artificial intelligence chip startup located near OpenAI's San Francisco headquarters. In 2019, OpenAI signed a letter of intent to invest $51 million to purchase Rain's chips.
Nowadays, Ultraman's ambition is even greater. In order to reshape the global semiconductor industry, some insiders say that as part of the negotiations, Ultraman is promoting cooperation between OpenAI, investors, chip manufacturers, and power suppliers. These companies will jointly fund the construction of chip foundries, which will then be operated by existing chip manufacturers. OpenAI will become an important customer for the new factory.
Among the Middle Eastern investors attracted by Ultraman is one of Abu Dhabi's wealthiest and most influential figures - Sheikh Tanu bin Zayed Al Nahayan. He is the National Security Advisor of the United Arab Emirates, serving as the Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi's third largest sovereign wealth fund ADQ (Abu Dhabi Development Holdings Limited), and the Chairman of Abu Dhabi Artificial Intelligence Company G42, which has also established partnerships with Microsoft and OpenAI.
Ultraman has revealed his plans to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and Chief Technology Officer Kevin Scott. He will also meet with Sun Zhengyi, CEO of SoftBank, and representatives from chip manufacturing companies such as TSMC to discuss cooperation matters. According to the Wall Street Journal, insiders said that in negotiations with TSMC, Ultraman had stated that he hoped to build dozens of chip manufacturing plants in the coming years. His vision is to raise funds from Middle Eastern investors to enable TSMC to build and operate these factories.
However, Ultraman's negotiations are still in the early stages, and the complete list of potential investors is not yet clear. The negotiations may continue for several years and may not be successful in the end.
Facing challenges such as talent and cyclical fluctuations
Raising trillions of dollars may be an easy part of Ultraman's chip plan, as he faces challenges such as talent recruitment, cyclical markets, and a lack of viable chip manufacturers.
Chip manufacturing is a capital intensive industry, and building a cutting-edge chip factory typically costs at least $10 billion. But money is not the only factor for success. The chip industry is one of the most complex industries in the world, with severe cyclical fluctuations, and companies are cautious about aggressive expansion. Some chip companies stumbled during the industry downturn, while others stopped developing cutting-edge chips due to high costs and risks. It took decades for the world's most advanced chip manufacturers to reach their current heights. According to The Wall Street Journal, currently, only three companies worldwide can mass produce the most cutting-edge chips, namely TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Intel. Many large companies, including NVIDIA, design their own chips but outsource chip production to companies such as TSMC.
Industry executives also stated that there are still uncertain factors, including how to find engineers to operate a new batch of factories, how to obtain equipment to fill the factories, and the delivery cycle of some chip manufacturing equipment is about two years. In addition, uncertainty also lies in how to obtain enough orders to prove that these factories are reasonable. Even if a large number of new chip factories are built, it may not necessarily solve the AI chip shortage problem that Ultraman has recently encountered. According to The Wall Street Journal, the biggest bottleneck in producing Nvidia AI chips is packaging.
The challenges faced in manufacturing chips are different from those faced by Ultraman's early entrepreneurial ventures involving computers and software. Jimmy Goodrich, a semiconductor industry expert and senior advisor to the US think tank Rand Corp., said that in the software field, anything is possible, it's just a matter of funding and programming. But in the field of hard technology, it is difficult to deal with physical laws and consider real-world and engineering challenges.
At the same time, industry insiders in the chip industry have stated that if Ultraman's plan succeeds, the market may oversupply and prices fall, leading to companies operating factories below capacity. Due to high fixed costs, this will sound the financial death knell for the chip industry.