Tesla's stock price has been hit hard by the market recently. In the latest financial report season, Tesla is the only technology giant among the "Big Seven" to achieve fourth quarter 2023 performance that did not exceed market expectations. Starting a new week on Monday, Tesla (TSLA, stock price: $181.06, total market value: $576.6 billion) was once again bearish.
According to media reports on February 6th, the German newspaper Business Daily reported that IT giant SAP has removed Tesla from its list of automotive suppliers. SAP team leader Steffen Krautwasser stated that Tesla's price fluctuations have made planning more difficult and brought higher risks. The report cites a statement from this German company stating that Tesla usually delivers earlier than the agreed upon time, which has caused trouble for SAP as a customer. (SAP currently has 29000 cars, and the report does not specify how many of them are Tesla cars.)
Although the overall number is not large, SAP's exit means that Musk's efforts to expand the enterprise car market have been thwarted, which is undoubtedly adding insult to injury in the already sluggish market sentiment since the beginning of the year. It is well known that Tesla frequently adjusts the prices of its flagship vehicles. Just over the weekend, according to Tesla's website, the company raised the price of the Long Range Model 3 by $1000 to $46990, compared to the previous price of $45990.
After the news of SAP excluding Tesla from the automotive supplier list came out, Tesla's US stock market plummeted by about 7% on Monday, causing its cumulative decline in the past five trading days to expand to over 10%. However, in just over a month since the beginning of the year, the decline has reached an astonishing 30% (market value evaporated by $213.395 billion, equivalent to approximately RMB 1.54 trillion).
However, Tesla's intraday decline has narrowed slightly since then, but its performance is still significantly lower than that of the US stock market.
Now, Tesla has experienced its first annual profit decline since 2017.
Recently, Tesla released its 2023 financial report, which showed that Tesla's total revenue in 2023 reached 96.773 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18.79%; The net profit attributable to common shareholders is 14.997 billion US dollars. The company's gross profit margin for the whole year was 18.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35 percentage points; The adjusted EBITDA was $16.631 billion, a decrease of 13% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to common shareholders under non GAAP accounting standards was $10.882 billion, a decrease of 23% year-on-year; Diluted earnings per share were $3.12, a 23% decrease from the record breaking $4.07 in 2022.
From the fundamental perspective of the financial report, Tesla's timely completion of sales targets and record high revenue performance may seem to have delivered a relatively objective performance report, but in reality, potential factors such as slowing revenue growth and continuously declining gross profit margins are also truly reflected in its stock price. The day after the financial report was released, January 25th (local time), Tesla fell more than 12% at one point, evaporating its market value by $80.1 billion.
At the cost of sacrificing profits, Tesla ensured sales in 2023. But for this year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is clearly a bit pessimistic. At the financial report meeting, he stated that the sales growth rate in 2024 may be significantly lower than in 2023, as he is focusing on the launch of the next generation model, which is expected to enter production in the second half of 2025.
According to a report by Securities Daily on January 30th, reporters have observed that in the past year, car companies including BYD, Geely Krypton, and Xiaopeng have concentrated their efforts in the 200000 to 300000 yuan pure electric market, and Tesla's product competitiveness is being strongly impacted by latecomers. During the financial report conference call, Musk stated that Chinese car companies are the most competitive manufacturers in the world. "If there were no trade restrictions, Chinese car companies could defeat most of the world's car companies."
It is widely believed that Tesla, with its strong brand appeal and product potential, will still be the leader in the electric vehicle industry. However, as the first mover dividend gradually fades, Tesla's growth rate will gradually slow down. Next, "how much additional sales can be contributed by exchanging price for volume" and "how to increase gross profit rate through continuous cost reduction?" will become two major topics that Tesla needs to clarify and solve urgently.
Tesla compares the current stage of the company to between "two growth waves," with the first wave being led by the global expansion of the Model 3 and Model Y platforms, and the next wave being initiated by the global expansion of the next-generation automotive platform. Against the backdrop of the current slowdown in growth, the launch of new vehicle models, energy business, and autonomous driving are seen as key factors for Tesla's growth in the coming years.
"There aren't many new stories to tell about Tesla in 2024," said Gao Chao, a researcher at the China Autonomous Driving Industry Innovation Alliance. Considering that Tesla's new car is unlikely to be launched in the short term, the dividend period of the old model is approaching the ceiling, and Cybertruck is still climbing, Tesla's sales growth in 2024 may not exceed 20%. And this achievement may slow down the company's previously established plan of an average annual sales growth of 50% and reaching a sales volume of 20 million vehicles by 2030.