On February 1st, multinational pharmaceutical company MSD's 2023 annual report showed that its PD-1 monoclonal antibody Keytruda (hereinafter referred to as K-drug) has become the new global "drug king" with sales of $25 billion.
Revenue exceeded 60 billion US dollars, and K-drug made a significant contribution
In 2023, Merck's revenue reached 60.1 billion US dollars, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year. Among them, PD-1 monoclonal antibody K drug contributed $25 billion in sales, almost holding up half of the market and becoming the world's best-selling drug in 2023.
The newly launched "King of Medicine" K-drug was approved for sale in the United States in September 2014 and is the world's best-selling PD-1 monoclonal antibody in recent years. As of now, the drug has been approved for 39 indications in the United States, which is not only the PD-1 monoclonal antibody with the most approved indications for various types of tumors, but also the immune checkpoint inhibitor with the most comprehensive indication layout for lung cancer. In 2018, K-drug was approved for marketing in China, with 12 indications approved domestically. Some institutions predict that K-drug sales are expected to reach a milestone of $30 billion by 2028.
The previous generation "Medicine King" was Xiu Meile, a subsidiary of Abbott. Although Abbott has not yet released its 2023 financial report, in terms of sales in the first three quarters, Xiu Meile's $11.1 billion is still a certain distance from K Medicine's $18.403 billion, and with the expiration of the patent, Xiu Meile's performance growth rate is weak.
For the "Medicine King" throne, there are also other products that are eager to try, all from the GLP-1 receptor agonist track. In June 2021, the indications for slimming with Smegglutide were approved for marketing by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), becoming the first weekly GLP-1 receptor agonist for weight management. The approval of weight loss indications directly drives the sales of Smegglutide. In 2022, the sales of the drug reached 10.9 billion US dollars. In the first three quarters of 2023, with the support of weight loss indications, the cumulative sales of three products of Smegglutide reached 14.282 billion US dollars. The high sales and growth rate of the company have made Smegglutide a strong contender for the global "king of medicine".
As a GLP-1 receptor agonist, Lilly's tirposide should not be underestimated. In November 2023, the indications for obesity or overweight of Telposide were approved by the FDA for marketing, with a price 20% lower than Smegglutide. According to data and analysis company GlobalData, with better clinical data on weight loss efficacy, it is expected that sales will reach $27 billion in 2029. This data has a significant impact on both K-drug and Smegglutide.
HPV vaccine contributes nearly $9 billion in revenue
The HPV vaccine (Jiada Xiu) is another flagship product of MSD, which contributed $8.886 billion in revenue to MSD in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 33% (excluding foreign exchange effects). The strong growth of the Chinese market has become an important factor in the increase in performance.
In China, first in August 2022, the indications for the Merck Dong nine valent HPV vaccine were expanded to include eligible women aged 9-45. The population to which the vaccine is adapted has significantly expanded. Subsequently, on January 9th of this year, the second dose vaccination program for 9-14 year old women with Merck's nine valent HPV vaccine (0, June December) was approved. This means that the vaccination process is simplified.
Professor Qiao Youlin from the School of Group Medicine and Public Health at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College has pointed out in public that girls aged 9-14 are the primary vaccinated population recommended by the World Health Organization. Their HPV vaccination can easily stimulate better immune responses, and women who have not engaged in sexual activity will receive the best preventive effect from HPV vaccination. Simplifying the vaccination process will undoubtedly release more vaccine resources, which is good news for the domestic nine valent HPV vaccine market, which is in short supply.
In September 2023, MSD also submitted a male indication marketing application for the nine valent HPV vaccine, which was accepted by the National Medical Products Administration, becoming the first nine valent HPV vaccine to submit a male indication marketing application in China.
This series of actions has also stirred up the domestic HPV vaccine market. The 2023 performance forecast disclosed by Wantai Biotechnology last week showed a year-on-year decrease of over 70% in net profit, due to a decline in revenue from one of its main products, the bivalent HPV vaccine, which is the first domestically produced vaccine of its kind. Wantai Biotechnology stated that due to factors such as the aging of the nine valent HPV vaccine and market competition, the sales of the two valent HPV vaccine were lower than expected, with a year-on-year decrease in revenue of about 4.2 billion yuan. Another company, Watson Biotech, which holds the bivalent HPV vaccine, also stated that sales of the bivalent HPV vaccine did not meet expectations due to the aging and significant increase in imports of the nine valent HPV vaccine.