Even if Apple puts down its posture, it will not be able to regain its former glory in the short term.
On January 31st, the topic of # iPhone shipments facing significant decline # once again made it to the hot search on Weibo. According to Guo Minggui, an analyst at Tianfeng International, according to the latest supply chain survey, Apple has lowered the number of key upstream semiconductor components. The estimated shipment of iPhones in 2024 is as low as 200 million units, a 15% year-on-year decline. He also pointed out that among major global smartphone brands in 2024, Apple may have the largest decline.
Specifically, the shipment volume of the iPhone 15 series and the new iPhone 16 series is expected to decline by 10% -15% in both the first and second quarters of this year. The main reason is that the iPhone is facing "structural challenges". On the one hand, it is a new design paradigm for high-end phones, such as AI phones and foldable screen phones; On the other hand, it is due to Apple's continued decline in the Chinese market, mainly including Huawei's return and folding phones gradually becoming the preferred choice for high-end users to switch phones. In the past few weeks, Apple's weekly shipments have experienced a year-on-year decline of 30% -40%, and this trend will continue. In predicting future iPhone models, Guo Minggui stated that a new model with significant design changes will be launched in 2025, and a more comprehensive and differentiated generative AI ecosystem or application will be released. A series of architectural challenges will be detrimental to iPhone shipment momentum and ecological growth.
Currently, Apple is launching a new generation of iPhones. For consumers, it is just an increase in numbers, and there are fewer and fewer innovative technologies that can be perceived. Issues such as battery life and signal are often criticized by consumers.
In addition, the hot sales of high-end market competitors such as Huawei Mate 60 series have brought heavy pressure. The iPhone is no longer the same as before. In order to capture consumers, Apple has also changed its previous high cold attitude and tried to maintain its market share by lowering prices.
In January 2024, according to incomplete statistics from Blue Whale Finance reporters, topics related to iPhone price reductions made it to the Weibo hot search list three times, including Apple's official price reduction for its new iPhone product for the first time in many years; On third-party e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo, Taobao, and Douyin, the selling price of iPhone 15 128GB has dropped to below 5000 yuan, which is 1401 yuan lower than the release price. Last year, Apple's position as number one has not been lost for the time being. According to data released by various market research institutions such as IDC, Canalys, and Counterpoint, Apple still ranked first in the Chinese smartphone market throughout 2023. According to IDC data, in 2023, Apple surpassed Samsung for the first time in the global smartphone market, firmly holding the top position with a market share of 20.1%.
But it is difficult to maintain Apple's future glory relying on price reductions and the previously established brand reputation. According to Apple's previously disclosed financial report data, in the third quarter of 2023, Apple's revenue was $89.498 billion, a decrease of 1% year-on-year. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of decline for Apple, with net revenue from products reaching $67.884 billion, a decrease from $70.958 billion in the same period last year.
In the era of functional phones turning to smartphones, Apple created its own iPhone moment, but as the AI era approaches and foldable screens gradually expand from niche tracks, Apple's leading advantage is shrinking. However, for Apple, which has always pursued perfect products, not releasing products does not mean there is no layout. When a crisis strikes, Apple seems to be eager to release signals to the market. Recently, according to Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman, Apple will launch iOS 18 with generative AI functionality at the Global Developers Conference in June this year. According to 9To5Mac, in the first test version of iOS 17.4, Apple has started testing its AI functionality, and the iOS 17.4 code indicates that Apple is testing four different artificial intelligence models. According to foreign media The Information, in the iPhone 16 series, Apple will explore the introduction of a dedicated camera button. Although the button is still mechanically designed, its surface can respond to user touch input, allowing for zooming in or out of focus. At the same time, the button can respond to pressure changes. Users can lightly press it to focus, and press it again to take photos with the shutter. Meanwhile, Mark Goodman also pointed out that the 13 inch M3 MacBook Air and the new iPad Pro have already been produced overseas and are expected to be launched around the end of March.
Apple's other product, Vision Pro, has been given high hopes by Apple in an attempt to replicate the "iPhone moment". In order to keep this product competitive, according to a report from 9To5Mac cited by IT Home, Apple recently released a beta update for Watch OS 10.4, introducing a new option on the Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2 smartwatches to temporarily disable the "double finger click twice" gesture, which was a key feature introduced in the Watch OS 10.1 update released in October last year. The report also stated that the Vision Pro headset has sold over 200000 units in the United States since its reservation, and Apple has earned nearly $700 million in pre order revenue. In order to help potential buyers better understand this device, Mark Guman revealed that the unofficial independent review of the Vision Pro was lifted on January 30th.
After accepting the reservation for Vision Pro, Guo Minggui posted that the first weekend pre order of Vision Pro met expectations, but hidden concerns emerged. Vision Pro sold out immediately after opening pre orders, confirming previous speculation. However, the inability to maintain a stable increase in pre order demand is also the biggest problem. On the news side, the first users of Vision Pro were mainly technology bloggers rather than ordinary consumers. According to the analysis of Huatai Securities research report, Vision Pro cannot replace the iPhone's position in the short term. Assuming that the shipment volume of Vision Pro's first generation products corresponds to the range of 500000 to 1 million, optimistic calculations show that the first generation products will drive the supply chain by about $3 billion per year, accounting for only 5% of Apple's $60 billion.
As of the close on January 30th local time, Apple closed at $188.04 per share, down 1.92%, with a total market value of approximately $2.91 trillion.