In 2023, Jingke Energy (688223. SH) ranked first on the global photovoltaic enterprise shipment list with an estimated 75GW of photovoltaic module shipments, with a market share of approximately 14.5% to 15%.
During the "Jingke New Scene Distributed Peak Annual Conference", Jingke Energy also summarized and analyzed the supply and demand and price situation of the photovoltaic industry market in 2023, and made the latest research and judgment on the development trend of the photovoltaic industry in 2024.
Zheng Tiangang, a market analyst at Jingke Energy, said, "Based on the high base of photovoltaic demand exceeding 500GW for the whole year of 2023, the company expects that the global demand for photovoltaic modules will grow at a rate of 20% to 30% for the whole year of 2024. In 2024, the global market share of N-type photovoltaic modules will jump from 25% in 2023 to over 70%. At the same time, in 2024, outdated industry production capacity will accelerate the elimination, but advanced production capacity will still be scarce, and the effect of leading modules will become more significant."
"In addition to the contributions of the three major markets of China, Europe, and the United States, emerging markets such as the Middle East and the Asia Pacific have seen rapid growth in the past 24 years. Among them, the company has high visibility of orders and high contract prices in the US market, and has signed multiple large orders for GW level N-type components in the Middle East market, which is expected to contribute a significant market share and profits." said the person in charge of Jingke Energy.
When it comes to the company's expectations for the first quarter of 2024, the relevant person in charge of Jingke Energy stated that the first quarter was a traditional off-season due to the influence of the Spring Festival. However, benefiting from the high market share of N-type TOPCon products and the contribution of overseas high prices and long orders, the company is confident in maintaining better capacity utilization and performance than its peers.
According to Jingke Energy's "Investor Relations Activity Record for December 2023", Jingke Energy believes that during the downward cycle of photovoltaic module prices, the industry's profit performance will further differentiate. Integrated enterprises with a high proportion of advanced production capacity and strong cost channel advantages are more competitive. In some old production capacity and fiercely competitive markets, profitability will face significant challenges. The current industry has experienced a differentiation in operating rates, a slowdown in production expansion for some enterprises, and the gradual withdrawal of new entrants. The pace of iteration of new and old technologies and the clearance of outdated production capacity is expected to further accelerate.
The reporter noticed that in October 2023, Jingke Energy CTO Jin Hao provided a "timetable" for the company's future TOPCon battery efficiency improvement path. Jin Hao said, "On the basis of achieving an average efficiency of 25.8% in mass production by the end of 2023, by 2024, we will achieve a full line efficiency of 26.5% without requiring too much high-precision equipment. At the same time, through production optimization and material optimization, we will reach an efficiency level of about 27%. Combined with new technological reserves, we will achieve a conversion efficiency of 27% to 27.5% in the next two to three years."
According to third-party organizations, Jingke Energy is expected to achieve approximately 45GW of TOPCon photovoltaic module sales by 2023, accounting for approximately 40% of the market share.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2024, various links in China's photovoltaic industry chain will continue to dominate the global production capacity increment and stock in the global photovoltaic industry supply chain layout, and the proportion is expected to further increase.