Apple's renowned analyst Guo Minggui released a report on Monday, stating that after Apple's Vision Pro opened bookings in the United States last Friday, due to booming sales, the delivery time has been delayed until March, but subsequent demand may rapidly decrease. During the US stock market session, Apple's stock price rose by over 1%.
Guo Minggui wrote, "Consistent with previous predictions, the opening of Vision Pro pre orders means all sales are sold out, and the delivery time of various models is generally extended to 5-7 weeks within a few hours after the opening of pre orders."
He estimates that based on the pre order stocking level and delivery time, it is estimated that Apple sold 160000-180000 Vision Pro units in the first weekend after opening the Vision Pro pre-sale. It should not be difficult for the Vision Pro to reach 500000 units in shipment this year.
However, after the pre order sales were sold out, the delivery time did not extend, which raised concerns about a rapid decline in demand. Therefore, it is still necessary to closely observe other market demands and application updates in the future to determine changes in demand.
Guo Minggui stated that the delivery time remains unchanged, which may mean a rapid decline in demand after core fans and heavy users place orders.
According to Apple's convention, popular iPhone models will also be sold out immediately after booking, and shipping time usually increases from a few hours to a few weeks. However, unlike the Vision Pro, iPhone models typically experience a stable increase in delivery time within 24 to 48 hours of pre-sale, indicating that demand will continue to grow even after the initial sale.
However, based on Apple's huge user base of 1 billion, it is still difficult for Apple to meet user needs in the early stages, and Vision Pro assembly manufacturers need to work overtime to increase shipments.
Niche products
Morgan Stanley analysts recently predicted that Apple's Vision Pro device shipments this year may reach 300000 to 400000 units, with further increases depending on initial sales feedback.
Wall Street analysts predict that the $3499 Vision Pro will not immediately bring significant revenue growth to Apple, but they are closely monitoring the initial sales of this new product and its potential for the future. Guo Minggui stated that currently Vision Pro is still a very niche product.
In addition, like many new technology platforms, the success of Vision Pro largely depends on the support of third-party applications and services, which is the biggest problem faced by the device.
So far, some well-known developers have not provided much help for this device. The three most popular streaming service companies globally, Netflix, YouTube, and Spotify, have stated that they will not launch visionOS software or allow their iPad applications to run on Vision Pro.
Other major developers, including the backbone of iOS and iPadOS such as Google and Meta Platforms, seem to be preparing to avoid the new operating platform VisionOS from the beginning.
Apple claims that Vision Pro will run over one million applications out of the box, including software from Disney, TikTok, Amazon, Paramount Global, and others. But 99% of applications should be iPad versions, not new software designed for VisionOS.