A thousand calls have begun to emerge. Not long ago, the global GDP data for 2023 was finally released, and what everyone is most concerned about is undoubtedly the ranking among countries.
Firstly, Germany achieved a century long comeback and finally surpassed Japan after 50 years. At the same time, there have been significant changes in GDP data for India, South Korea, and Japan. However, the biggest concern among Chinese people is actually the competition between China and the United States. Will the data release continue to widen the gap between China and the United States, as predicted at the beginning of the year?
Firstly, Japan. It is reported that Japan's GDP in the first half of the year was once again surpassed by Germany after 50 years. However, the root cause is not actually how strong Germany's economic development is. The Russia Ukraine war has made Germany's energy problems repeatedly difficult to solve, and the economic growth rate is even lower than before. According to statistical data, Germany's GDP in the first half of the year reached $2.18 trillion, an increase of only $120 billion compared to the same period last year.
On the contrary, Japan's GDP reached 2.14 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, a decrease of $6 million compared to the same period last year. However, it is worth noting that in the economic growth rates announced by the two countries this year, Germany and Japan have achieved growth rates of -0.3% and 2% respectively.
Some people are very puzzled about this, why did the final result come out even lower when the growth rate was high?
The reason is actually very simple. From the current global GDP calculation model, the unified unit of calculation is the US dollar, and there are exchange rate fluctuations in the process of converting domestic currency into US dollars. As for the Japanese yen, it has been depreciating against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, reaching a maximum of 16%. Although the euro has also depreciated against the US dollar, it can be completely ignored compared to the Japanese yen.
It is indeed unfair that a change in exchange rate can cause so much change in the size of GDP. It should be noted that whenever the economic development of developed countries such as the United States and the West enters a state of stagnation, they generally do not overcome difficulties by upgrading their manufacturing and service industries, but rely on their monetary advantages to directly raise interest rates or push up prices.
As a populous country in Asia, India is also very eye-catching. According to the GDP data released in the first half of this year, India's GDP growth rate reached an astonishing 6.9%, ranking first among the top ten countries in terms of economic growth rate. Some people are inevitably afraid of this. Is it true that India predicts that one day it will catch up with and surpass China?
In fact, this is not the case. Although India's current economic development rate is very efficient, there is still a significant gap in terms of economic growth compared to us. Based on the current overall size of the Indian economy, it is only about 1/5 of that of China. If calculated based on this ratio, and India's annual economic growth rate is 1% higher than that of China, the total economic output of India will remain at the same level as China, at least it will take at least 50 years. Moreover, China's economy is also in a high growth state, and the annual growth rate of 1% higher is indeed too much.
As the only developed country in Asia, South Korea's economic development is also worth paying attention to. According to the latest released economic data, South Korea's GDP in the first half of this year has completely dropped out of the top 10 and dropped to 14th place. Surpassed by many developed countries.
It should be noted that South Korea, like Japan, has a significant proportion of import and export trade in the entire economic system. However, since Yin Xiyue took office and embarked on a pro American path, she has followed the United States in imposing sanctions on China's semiconductor industry, while also reducing exports to mainstream industries such as automobiles. China has always been South Korea's largest exporter, and South Korea's move is like playing with fire, Ultimately, it led to a very serious economic downturn. To be honest, if South Korea wants to enter the top 10 globally again and does not make some changes, it will be even more difficult.
In addition, it is Russia located in the northern part of our country. After the Russo Ukrainian War, the United States and Western countries imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia. However, even under this premise, Russia's GDP growth rate still reached 1.6%, surpassing established developed countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. It seems that the United States and Western countries are equivalent to imposing sanctions.
As the world's second largest economy, China's economic growth rate in the first half of this year was also unparalleled, but it was surpassed by India. China's GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.5%, ranking second in the world. However, from the overall scale of GDP, compared to the United States, China only accounts for about 64% of it, a decrease of 7% compared to last year.
The main reason for the significant reduction is due to the impact of high inflation in the United States. According to statistical data, as of now, the inflation rate in the United States has reached 5.7%. In addition, coupled with the continuous interest rate hikes in the US dollar, the Chinese yuan has been in a depreciating state against the US dollar. Therefore, when converted, the gap between China and the United States has widened again.
This economic analysis model based on the US dollar is actually not very accurate. With the continuous development of China's high-end manufacturing industry in recent years and the continuous improvement of China's international status, the international monetary status of the renminbi has been significantly improved. So we should try our best to define consumption by ourselves, so that even if the United States is strong, it cannot form a harvest for us.