After just entering the 21st century, the global economic landscape has seen a situation of "one superpower and multiple powers", with "one superpower" referring to the United States and "multiple powers" referring to many countries including China, Japan, Germany, etc. Now that more than 20 years have passed, the so-called "one super" has also become the "two super". In terms of economic strength, the top five in the world are currently the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India.
According to data released by the IMF in 2022, the top five GDP countries are the United States (23.32 trillion US dollars), China (17.76 trillion US dollars), Japan (5.05 trillion US dollars), Germany (4.27 trillion US dollars), and India (3.15 trillion US dollars), respectively. It is not difficult to see that since China, the GDP scale has experienced a fault like decline.
However, what concerns Chinese people the most is that, in terms of the speed of economic development in our country, surpassing the United States has become a certainty. However, when can we surpass it?
Not long ago, Goldman Sachs just made a detailed forecast of the global GDP in 2075. According to the ranking results, the top three are China, India, and the United States. As for Japan, which is now ranked third, it has dropped to around 12 due to various issues such as aging and fewer children in the country. Before Japan, there are also Asian countries such as Pakistan and Indonesia. In fact, for the current economic environment of Japan, dropping to 12th place globally after more than 50 years is already a good result.
South Korea, which has always admired its "invincibility", has already fallen out of the top 10 since last year, and it is estimated that after 2035, it will have to be outside the top 30. In addition, the established European economic powers have also fallen to 15th place.
As for Russia's economy, it has not achieved significant development, ranking 9th in 2022, while Goldman Sachs' forecast for 2075 is 13th. After all, the reason why Russia's economy can rank high is due to energy and military industry. Firstly, energy is not inexhaustible, and secondly, most of Russia's military industry comes from the Soviet era. Except for some fields, its own self-developed ability is not very strong, so many backward equipment is probably not willing to be purchased by many countries.
It is worth noting that the GDP convergence between China and the United States will occur around 2035, followed by China's economy leading the world. The GDP convergence period between India and the European Union will also occur around 2035, followed by economic takeoff. Around 2073, the GDP of the United States will once again converge with China, and then the United States will become the world's second largest economy, with overall strength beginning to decline.
As for Japan, as early as a few years ago, its economic growth rate has entered a very sluggish state, and the total annual GDP is basically in a state of stable decline. On the contrary, China's economic growth rate has completely entered a surge stage since 2008, except for the slowdown during the epidemic period, everything else has remained in a high-speed growth state.
As for India, the economic growth rate in recent years has indeed been astonishing, otherwise Modi wouldn't have changed the country's name. It is reported that India's economic growth rate in recent years has almost been comparable to that of China. As for the prediction made by Goldman Sachs, although it has some merit, we still hold a reserved attitude. After all, 2075 is a bit far from now, and there are too many uncontrollable factors in it.
For example, many people believe that it is impossible for India's strength to achieve the prediction made by Goldman Sachs. If we impose China's economic development on India, it will not work at all. It is undeniable that India has indeed achieved significant development in recent years due to its population advantage, but its own ethnic industrial structure and residents' cultural level are not commendable. Moreover, India has an extremely strict caste system, and its environment has also been criticized by foreign investors.
In terms of total GDP, India does indeed surpass countries such as Britain and France, but its GDP and per capita GDP size do not have much value to say. According to statistical data, the per capita GDP of India in 2023 was only 2780 yuan (RMB), which is a significant difference compared to China. Can you believe this?
Of course, there is also a component of India's inflated GDP, and some netizens commented that even if India's GDP does become the world's second largest, even if one day India's GDP does become the world's first, it will still be difficult to solve the pollution problem of the Ganges River water, the personal hygiene problem of ordinary Indian people, India's very distorted wealth gap, and India's deeply rooted caste system.
The reason why Japan and South Korea are lonely is mainly due to the shortage of labor caused by population issues, which has led to a gradual decline in the economy. To be honest, many countries have taken this as a warning and have not yet been able to come up with effective "breaking measures" for population issues.
What do you think of this?