The Japanese market continues its frenzy: the Nikkei breaks through 36000 points and the 2-year Japanese bonds return to negative yields!
slf2wr
发表于 2024-1-15 15:10:00
3187
0
0
In the third week of the new year, the frenzy in the Japanese stock and bond market continues
Market data shows that driven by the rise of shipping and financial stocks, the Nikkei 225 index further rose strongly above 36000 points in Monday afternoon, and has crossed four thousand point integer levels since the beginning of the year. At the same time, with the expectation that the Bank of Japan is expected to postpone the process of interest rate increase becoming stronger, the price of Japanese treasury bond bonds of all maturities also rose, and the yield of two-year Japanese bonds fell back to negative value for the first time since July last year.
Is the Nikkei breaking through the thousand point mark like "exploring a bag to extract things"?
Last week, the Nikkei 225 index hit its best weekly performance in 22 months, and at the beginning of this week, the upward trend of Japanese stocks clearly showed no signs of stopping. At the close of Monday, the latest trading of the Nikkei 225 index was at 35901.79 points, with a intraday increase of nearly 1%. At one point during the day, it rose above 36000 points, marking the first time since February 1990.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange Index, which has lower technology equity, closed up 1.22% and also hit a 34 year high during trading.
From the specific sectors that rose, as the tense situation in the Red Sea pushed up shipping prices, the Tokyo Stock Exchange Shipping Stock Index surged by more than 5% on the day, ranking first among the 33 sub sectors. Financial stocks, which experienced a significant decline last Friday, also rebounded strongly within the day - the brokerage stock index rose 4%, and banking stocks rose more than 2%.
Although some technical indicators have already issued overbought signals, many Japanese stock bulls seem to be indifferent at the moment. At present, the relative strength index (RSI) of the Nikkei 225 index has climbed to over 76, with over 70 usually indicating overbought in the market.
Nomura Securities strategist Kazuo Kamitani said that the Nikkei index has shown a surprising upward trend, although he expects the market to adjust in some form to the recent rebound speed this week, the decline in US bond yields and the trend of the yen exchange rate still boosted overall confidence.
From the news perspective, the Tokyo Stock Exchange will release a monthly list of companies that have disclosed plans to increase shareholder value starting from Monday's close, which is expected to bring new impetus to Japanese stocks. Previously, in March of last year, the Tokyo Stock Exchange issued a notice on meeting the requirements for focusing on capital costs and stock price operations, requiring further institutional advancement of expectations for improving the valuation of the Japanese stock market.
In terms of valuation, the "requirement" emphasizes that for listed companies with a price to book ratio below 1 times, they should provide explanations and improvements. The specific methods include: firstly, stock repurchase, encouraging market value management through stock repurchase to improve price to book ratio and ROE; Secondly, timely adjustment of corporate strategy; Thirdly, pay attention to the return on capital; The fourth is to actively create and institutionalize channels for information disclosure.
T Daniel Hurley, an expert in emerging markets and Japanese stock portfolios at Rowe Price, said that the corporate governance measures of the Tokyo Stock Exchange have caused a great response. That's why foreign investors, radical investors, hedge funds, and Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway are now closely monitoring the Japanese market.
Shoji Hirakawa, Chief Global Strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute, pointed out that "the announcement from the Tokyo Stock Exchange may trigger another wave of value stock buying."
According to a group of industry statistics, the total market value (in US dollars) of stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange surpassed that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange last Thursday, marking the Tokyo Stock Exchange's return to the top spot in Asia after about three and a half years.
The yield of 2-year Japanese bonds has turned negative again
In addition to further gains in the Japanese stock market, the Japanese bond market also rose strongly on Monday of this week. As expectations for the Bank of Japan to end its ultra loose monetary policy as soon as possible weaken, the two-year Japanese bond yield has fallen below zero for the first time since July last year!
Market data shows that the yield of 10-year Japanese treasury bond fell by 3 basis points in intraday trading, to the lowest point of 0.555% since December 20. The two-year Japanese bond yield declined by 0.5 basis points to negative 0.005%.
At present, after a 7.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Neden area of Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan on New Year's Day, and the dovish remarks made by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last month, market expectations for the Bank of Japan to withdraw from negative interest rate policies in January have significantly cooled.
Resona Holdings analyst Takeshi Ishida said, "If the Bank of Japan does not raise interest rates until April, I believe the market will assume that the central bank has no intention of raising rates. Currently, the reasons for the Bank of Japan not to withdraw from ultra loose monetary policy are increasing."
According to sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thoughts, it is expected that the bank will largely maintain its earlier forecast at its January meeting next week that the inflation trend will remain near the 2% target in the coming years.
The decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds last Friday also depressed the yield of Japanese bonds, as investors increased their bets on the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March this year.
Michio Saito, known as the "Mr. Japanese Bond," said on Monday that the Japanese bond market will largely accept any normalization measures from the central bank this year. Saito Daofu was well-known in the market in his early years for playing a crucial role in Japan's debt issuance management reform.
Saito Daofu pointed out that even if the Bank of Japan modifies its yield curve control plan or raises short-term policy rates, Japan's long-term yield will not significantly exceed 1%.
He added that after the end of negative interest rates in Japan, it is not expected that there will be a series of significant interest rate hikes like in the United States and Europe, which will limit the upward trend of 10-year Japanese bond yields. A single decision by the Bank of Japan is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. Even with tightening measures, the overall environment may still remain significantly relaxed.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- US Steel claims arbitration committee makes favorable ruling for Japan Steel's acquisition
- Just two short days! Expected 50 basis point interest rate cut shattered, 10-year US Treasury yield returns above 4%
- Japan sends a heavy signal! Potential interest rate hike risk: Japanese stock market hits hard
- The latest revelation confirms that the Bank of Japan is not in a hurry to raise interest rates in October, as the yen exchange rate falls to a critical level
- look out! The biggest 'thunder' in the global market is still hidden in Japan
- Black swan raid?! A historic moment for Japan!
- The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1%, while Nomura Holdings rose by over 6%
- Shigeru Ishiba is re elected as the Prime Minister of Japan
- Eli Lilly's new Alzheimer's disease drug Donanemab has been approved for pricing in Japan
- Chairman of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: Bank of Japan interest rates may hit 1% by March 2026
-
11月21日、2024世界インターネット大会烏鎮サミットで、創業者、CEOの周源氏が大会デジタル教育フォーラムとインターネット企業家フォーラムでそれぞれ講演、発言したことを知っている。周源氏によると、デジタル教 ...
- 不正经的工程师
- 昨天 16:36
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
アリババは、26億5000万ドルのドル建て優先無担保手形と170億元の人民元建て優先無担保手形の定価を発表した。ドル債の発行は2024年11月26日に終了する予定です。人民元債券の発行は2024年11月28日に終了する予定だ ...
- SOGO
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
スターバックスが中国事業の株式売却の可能性を検討していることが明らかになった。 11月21日、外国メディアによると、スターバックスは中国事業の株式売却を検討している。関係者によると、スターバックスは中国事 ...
- 献世八宝掌
- 前天 16:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【意法半導体CEO:中国市場は非常に重要で華虹と協力を展開】北京時間11月21日、意法半導体(STM.N)は投資家活動の現場で、同社が中国ウェハー代工場の華虹公司(688347.SH)と協力していると発表した。伊仏半導体 ...
- 黄俊琼
- 前天 14:29
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏