On Friday (January 12th), during US stock market trading, Tesla's stock price fell 3.7% at its lowest price of $217.35 per share, the lowest level since November 13, 2023. And since 2024, Tesla has only recorded one trading day of gains, with a cumulative decline of over 11% since the beginning of the year.
Analysis suggests that Tesla's stock is facing multiple bearish factors, including supply chain delays caused by the Red Sea crisis, rising labor costs in the United States, and weakened demand from car rental companies, all of which have exacerbated Tesla's predicament.
The Berlin factory will partially shut down
According to media reports, Tesla revealed on Thursday local time that it will suspend production of most of its cars at its super factory located in southeastern Berlin from January 29th to February 11th. The reason given by the company is that the Red Sea crisis caused many ships to divert to Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, and the elongation of transportation routes ultimately led to a shortage of spare parts.
According to a report released by investment bank Baird on Thursday, analysts estimate that Tesla produces 5000 to 7000 electric vehicles per week at its German automotive assembly plant. Due to supply chain delays, the delivery volume in the first quarter may decrease by 10000 to 14000 vehicles.
Since mid month, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces have expanded their range of attacks on Israeli targets, starting to strike "ships related to Israel" in the Red Sea and continuously escalating related threats, resulting in multiple cargo ships being attacked in nearby waters, and multiple shipping companies announcing a diversion to Cape of Good Hope.
Data shows that the cargo ship voyage from Rotterdam, Netherlands to Singapore will increase by 40% (approximately 3800 nautical miles). Tesla wrote in a statement, "The armed conflict in the Red Sea and the diversion of routes between Europe and Asia to the Cape of Good Hope have had an impact on the production of the Glenhead factory."
Earlier in the day, the Yemeni capital Sana'a and other areas were bombed by US and British forces. The latest announcement by the Yemeni Houthi armed forces indicates that the airstrikes in many parts of Yemen are illegal and unjustified attacks, posing a real threat to international peace and security. All "interests" of the United States and Britain are now "legitimate targets". This may mark a further escalation of the situation.
Other factors
In addition, analysts are also monitoring Tesla's continued price reduction. On Friday, Tesla's official website in China showed that the price of the updated Model 3 had dropped to 245900 yuan, the price of the extended range updated Model 3 had dropped to 285900 yuan, and the price of the Model Y had dropped to 258900 yuan.
Regarding this, Da Mo analysts believe that the price reduction this time is "milder than expected by the market.". But Tesla's long-term price cuts in North America have reduced the attractiveness of vehicles to American car rental companies. Yesterday, Hertz CEO Stephen Scherr announced that the company will sell 20000 electric vehicles and purchase gasoline powered vehicles.
It is understood that Hertz is the largest car rental company in the United States, and has announced the purchase of 100000 Tesla cars, which is the largest order in Tesla's history. This also means that most of Hertz's original cars were Tesla. Scheer previously stated that Tesla has driven the overall decline in retail prices of electric vehicles, resulting in a depreciation of the company's asset value.
According to the latest disclosure, in a flyer from Tesla's headquarters in Fremont, California, the company promised to offer salary increases to material handlers, production assistants, and quality inspectors, and stated a "market adjusted salary increase" to welcome the new year, but did not disclose the exact extent.
A worker at the Fremont factory confirmed this news, stating that salary information for 2024 has been posted on some websites, and Tesla has recently implemented a salary increase. This move is also widely interpreted as Tesla's goodwill to workers, in order to prevent them from joining UAW and launching a new union movement by signing collective bargaining agreements.
Meanwhile, Tesla still faces significant union pressure in Europe. The strike movement, which began with Tesla mechanics in Sweden, has evolved into a common movement involving at least 15 unions. Nordic countries, workers from various industries, and investment institutions such as large pension funds are calling for Tesla to initiate collective bargaining with unions.