The French Economic Situation Observatory (OFCE) predicts that the unemployment rate in France will rise in the second half of 2023, especially in 2024.
According to Agence France Presse, the macroeconomic forecast released by the French Economic Situation Observatory on the 17th shows that after strong employment growth in the past few years, France will experience a "reversal of the unemployment curve" by the end of 2023, especially in 2024.
According to the French Economic Situation Observatory, after a promising year in 2022, the French labor market continued to remain dynamic in the first half of 2023, creating a net of 172000 jobs, but began to slow down in the second quarter. The research institute predicts that the unemployment curve will reverse in the second half of 2023, especially in 2024, with the unemployment rate rising from the current 7.2% to 7.9% by the end of 2024. The report points out that with the implementation of the retirement system reform, the legal retirement age will increase and the labor force will significantly increase.
The institute also estimates that 2024 will be a year of declining inflation levels, with an expected average annual inflation rate of 3.3% and a decrease to 2.3% by the end of 2024. The French economy will maintain moderate growth, with an expected GDP growth of 0.8%. The report also believes that the government's deficit will remain at 4.8% of GDP in 2023 and 2024, mainly due to weak economic growth, which will put pressure on tax revenue.
At the global level, the French Economic Situation Observatory estimates that the rise in energy prices will slow down before the end of 2023, but economic growth will be affected by monetary tightening policies, which are expected to peak in 2024. The research institute predicts that global economic growth will slow from 3.2% in 2022 to 2.3% in 2024, and a slowdown in global economic growth "will lead to an increase in unemployment rates in most industrialized countries". (Overseas Network Paris Lujia)