On the early morning of Beijing time on the 19th, the Federal Reserve released the latest economic situation brown book compiled by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.
The Brown Book states that the economy in most parts of the United States has remained stable, labor market tensions have further improved, and price expectations are expected to stabilize. The data was collected from the Federal Reserve of 12 locations in the United States, with a deadline of October 6th this year.
The economy remains basically stable
The Federal Reserve stated that compared to the previous report, economic activity in most regions has remained almost unchanged.
From an industry perspective, due to differences in prices and product supply, consumer spending is mixed, especially among general retailers and car dealerships. The tourism industry continues to improve, although some regions have reported a slight slowdown in consumer travel and a few regions have seen an increase in business travel.
In addition, the bank reported a slight decrease in loan demand. The quality of consumer credit is stable, and the default rate is still at a historical low, but has slightly increased. The real estate situation has hardly changed, and the inventory of houses for sale is still very low. The prospects for manufacturing in some regions have improved, but overall performance remains fragmented.
Respondents believe that the recent economic outlook is stable or there may be a slight slowdown in growth. For companies that use the holiday shopping season as an important sales force, expectations are also different.
The labor market has eased somewhat
In terms of the labor market, tensions in the United States continue to ease. The number of employed people in most regions has slightly increased, and the urgency of enterprise recruitment has decreased. Several regions have reported an increase in talent recruitment and retention rates as job applicants increase, the range of candidates expands, and employed individuals are less willing to negotiate employment terms.
However, many regions still report ongoing challenges in recruiting and hiring skilled workers. A few regions emphasize that the elderly population remains in the labor force, either staying in their current positions or returning as part-time workers.
In terms of salary, most regions have seen moderate wage increases. Multiple regions have reported that job applicants have less resistance to the salary conditions proposed by employers. Enterprises have revised their salary plans to alleviate the increase in labor costs, including measures such as allowing remote work to replace higher wages, reducing signing bonuses, shifting to a more performance-based compensation model, and burdening employees with a larger share of welfare costs such as healthcare.
Price growth is expected to continue to slow down
Overall, prices continue to rise at a moderate rate. Various regions have indicated that the growth of manufacturers' input costs has slowed down or stabilized, but the input costs of service industry enterprises are still rising.
The rate of increase in product sales prices is lower than the rate of increase in input prices, as consumers become more sensitive to prices and companies find it difficult to pass on cost pressures. Therefore, it is difficult for enterprises to maintain ideal profit margins.
Overall, companies expect prices to rise in the coming quarters, but the growth rate will be lower than in previous quarters. Some regions have reported a decrease in the number of companies expected to experience significant price increases in the future.
Selected by Local Federal Reserve
Boston: Business activities and employment have slightly increased, recruitment plans have cooled down, and price increases have been moderate; The real estate market remains pessimistic.
New York: Economic activity has slightly weakened, the labor market is stable, consumer spending growth has slightly slowed down, commodity consumption exceeds experiential consumption, and price pressures have eased.
Philadelphia: Economic activity has slightly weakened, with both manufacturing and non manufacturing industries cooling down. With the further improvement of labor supply, the employment rate has slightly increased again, and wages and inflation have slowly increased.
Richmond: The regional economy has slightly contracted. Consumer spending has slightly increased, but there are differences in category performance. Manufacturers have noticed a decrease in demand. Due to limited inventory in residential real estate, commercial real estate credit has cooled down. The overall price growth remains stable.
Atlanta: Economic activity is growing slowly. The labor market has improved and wage pressure has eased. Some non labor costs have stabilized. Retail sales have slowed down. New car sales are strong. Domestic leisure tourism has decreased, while international and business travel has increased. Energy demand remains flat, and agricultural production is mixed.