After two consecutive months of rising inflation, Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth in September fell from 4.0% last month to 3.8%.
According to data released by the Canadian Bureau of Statistics on the 17th, the year-on-year decline in prices in September showed a wide range. The prices of tourism related services, durable goods, and groceries have all experienced a decline. However, gasoline prices increased by 7.5% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 0.8% increase in August, thus offsetting the price decline of all other items. If gasoline prices are excluded, the year-on-year CPI increase in September is 3.7%.
The reason for the significant year-on-year increase in gasoline prices is the base year effect. In September 2022, gasoline prices significantly decreased due to an increase in global crude oil supply.
From a month on month basis, the CPI decreased by 0.1% in September, lower than the 0.4% in August. The main reason for the slowdown in CPI month on month growth is that gasoline prices decreased in September compared to the previous month.
The Canadian Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the year-on-year increase in food and grocery prices in September was 5.8%, which continued to slow down from 6.9% in August, but still exceeded the overall inflation rate.
The year-on-year increase in durable goods prices was 0.4%, which also slowed down. The largest contributor among them is passenger cars. Due to improved inventory conditions, the year-on-year increase in new car prices decreased from 3.1% in August to 1.7% in September. The prices of furniture and household appliances have also decreased to varying degrees.
Canadian media quoted market analysts as believing that the decline in inflation levels has reduced the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. Since March last year, the Central Bank of Canada has raised interest rates several times in an attempt to curb inflation, and currently Canada's benchmark interest rate is at its highest level since April 2001. The next interest rate negotiation day of the Central Bank of China is October 25th.