According to a survey of 14 analysts by the London Stock Exchange, Tesla's global delivery volume in 2023 was approximately 1.82 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 37%; The delivery volume in the fourth quarter was approximately 473000 vehicles. Although Tesla's annual delivery volume may reach a new high, it is still below Musk's ambitious target of 2 million vehicles at the beginning of the year.
In the upcoming year 2024, Tesla may face three pressures: firstly, some models will lose tax credits in the United States and Germany; Second, the United States and some European countries have strengthened the supervision and review of their auto drive system and other parts; Thirdly, the new Model 3 and the recently launched Cyber trucks are insufficient to boost demand.
According to Reuters, a survey of 14 analysts by the London Stock Exchange (LSEG) showed that Tesla's global delivery volume in 2023 was about 1.82 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 37%; The delivery volume in the fourth quarter was approximately 473000 vehicles. "In terms of Tesla's delivery volume, the fourth quarter is usually the strongest of the year, and we expect this to happen again this year," said Garrett Nelson, senior analyst at CFRA Research.
Although Tesla's annual delivery volume may reach a new high, it is still below its CEO Elon Musk's ambitious goal at the beginning of the year. In January, Musk stated that without force majeure, Tesla could achieve a delivery volume of 2 million vehicles throughout the year. But in October, he warned that rising borrowing costs were putting pressure on demand.
Faced with weak sales, Tesla utilized its profit margin advantage to significantly lower the prices of its four models worldwide in 2023. Especially in the Chinese market, Tesla has repeatedly lowered prices, and some analysts believe that the reason is that its market share is being taken away by local companies such as BYD.
On the other hand, in the US market, as the "price war" intensifies and the demand for electric vehicles slows down, some car manufacturers, including Ford, have withdrawn their electrification plans. As a result, Tesla became an undisputed leader and helped drive its stock growth to more than double.
Entering 2024, Tesla will face the problem of some models losing tax credits in the United States and Germany. The German government will end electric vehicle subsidies early, which may force Tesla to further lower prices next year. Although interest rates and battery raw material costs are expected to ease, Tesla's overall profit margin may decline.
Jairam Nathan, a market analyst at Daiwa Capital, has lowered Tesla's delivery forecast for next year from 2.14 million vehicles to 2.04 million vehicles. "The big model shows that Tesla's average sales revenue per vehicle will decrease by 4% year-on-year in 2024," Nathan said.
It is worth mentioning that Tesla will also strengthen the supervision and review of its auto drive system and other parts in response to the United States and some European countries. Earlier this month, Tesla recalled almost all 2 million cars driving on American roads to install new safety measures.
Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner said, "Tesla candidly acknowledges that the company is currently in a period of medium to low growth," citing a conversation with Martin Viecha, Tesla's head of investor relations.
In addition, a survey by data analysis platform Visible Alpha shows that most analysts believe that the new Model 3 and recently launched Cyber trucks are not enough to boost demand. Investors expect that as Tesla increases its production of Cyber trucks and plans to launch a cheaper automotive platform, the company's profit margin will continue to be under pressure.
Tom Narayan, a capital markets analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, said that by 2024, sales of Cyber Trucks will account for 3% of Tesla's total sales. "Cyber trucks are more like a product with a 'halo' that may attract consumers to purchase Tesla," said Narayan. (Translated by Jiang Zhiwen from China Economic Net)