With the end of the Christmas holiday, this year's holiday shopping season in the United States has come to a complete end. And various signs indicate that many American consumers are becoming more cautious during this holiday season, with some shoppers waiting until the last minute of major promotions, still searching for cheaper Christmas products.
According to the Mastercard SpendingPulse report, which measures offline and online sales, US retail sales only increased by 3.1% between November 1st and December 24th this year. This growth rate is lower than Mastercard's forecast of 3.7% in September and significantly lower than last year's 7.6% growth, indicating that rising interest rates and inflation are putting pressure on consumer spending.
The estimate of SpendingPulse measures offline and online retail sales for all payment forms (excluding car and travel consumption), and is not adjusted for inflation. Most of the holiday sales for retailers come from this period.
Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard Economics Research Institute, said, "This year's holiday shopping season, consumers are spending in a cautious way. However, the economic background is still favorable, creating healthy employment opportunities and easing inflationary pressures, allowing consumers to seek the goods and experiences they value the most."
One characteristic of this holiday shopping season is that after experiencing relatively busy Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekends, many consumers waited until the last moment before Christmas to shop again, hoping for further price reductions, and there happened to be a complete weekend before Christmas this year.
Some analysts estimate that last Saturday (December 23rd) was the largest sales day of the year, surpassing Black Friday.
Marshall Cohen, Chief Retail Advisor at Circana, said, "If they are not particularly concerned about supply or afraid of missing out on purchases, they (consumers) have no reason to consume early."
According to SpendingPulse data, online retail sales increased by 6.3% year-on-year from November 1st to December 24th this year, while offline store sales increased by 2.2%. During this period, sales of electronic products and jewelry decreased year-on-year. The strongest growth is in the catering industry, as people dining out drives up food and beverage prices.
Even though the Federal Reserve has pushed interest rates to their highest level in over 20 years, strong consumption - especially in tourism and dining - has injected vitality into the US economy in 2023. However, after many families squandered during the pandemic, some categories of consumption have slowed down, especially household appliances and electronic products.
Difficult to conceal hidden worries
Many American retailers have varying interpretations of their shopping business during critical holidays. Some businesses have maintained stable sales, while others have warned that people are cutting back on expenses.
Although the job market in the United States remains strong, many consumers have significantly reduced their savings compared to the pandemic period and are facing a significant increase in credit card borrowing costs. Millions of American students have also resumed monthly student loan payments.
Nike and FedEx released their latest quarterly financial reports a few days before Christmas, and investors can actually draw some cautious signals from them. Both companies have lowered their revenue expectations, disappointing investors and leading to a sharp drop in stock prices.
Nike CFO Matt Friend stated last Thursday that demand for Nike sneakers and clothing is weak, in addition to promotional activities such as Black Friday. He also pointed out that the traffic on the company's e-commerce platform has decreased, while competitors have provided greater promotional activities.
FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam pointed out that "consumer spending on goods and services is approaching pre pandemic levels. The destocking phase has ended, but the restocking phase has not truly begun."
Many retailers started offering "Black Friday" discounts early in the current shopping season in order to avoid being trapped in inventory surplus. Amazon held the Prime Day promotion in October, and Wal Mart, Target and other large chain stores also launched the Black Five discount several weeks in advance.
According to Circana's data, as of December 16th, the unit sales of daily necessities decreased by 6% compared to the same period last year. Some categories are still holiday themed products: the best-selling children's products include toy building sets and plush toys. For adults, the best-selling products are beauty products and portable drinks.
It is worth mentioning that there are a total of 31 days from Black Friday to Christmas Eve this year, making it one of the longest holiday shopping seasons.
Craig Johnson, President of the research company Customer Growth Partners, said that some people may think this is beneficial for the business as it expands the sales window. But from another perspective, this will cause a lack of activity during the non holiday period in December. The longer the peak sales season, the longer the cooling off period.
Currently, the week after Christmas is becoming increasingly important for American retailers as consumers often go to stores for returns or seek higher discounts. Some chain stores started promoting post Christmas promotions even before Christmas Eve. Macy's department store mailed a promotional flyer a week before Christmas, promoting that clothing, accessories, and home items purchased online on December 25th and in store from December 26th to January 2nd can enjoy a 20% -60% discount.
The National Retail Federation previously predicted that holiday sales would increase by 6% to 8% from November 1st to December 31st, reaching between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. These numbers do not include consumption by car dealerships, gas stations, and restaurants. The industry organization is expected to update the sales statistics for this shopping season in January.