On Wednesday local time, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited the Ford aircraft carrier without public announcement. At the same time, details of his previously announced Red Sea Escort Operation have also been revealed. Against the backdrop of the still turbulent situation, the number of merchant ships detouring the Cape of Good Hope has exceeded a hundred.
Austin visits the Ford aircraft carrier
On Wednesday morning local time, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who was visiting the Middle East, appeared on the deck of the Ford aircraft carrier. The itinerary was not previously announced to the public. This aircraft carrier battle group is located in the eastern Mediterranean and closely monitors the situation in the Middle East direction.
In addition to inspecting the troops, Austin's visit also has an important purpose: to do his best to inspire American soldiers who are unable to return home for Christmas.
Just last week, Austin ordered the "Ford" aircraft carrier and another ship to continue staying in the Eastern Mediterranean, marking the third time the "Ford" aircraft carrier has received a mission extension order since going to sea this year.
This state-of-the-art aircraft carrier from the United States left Norfolk Naval Base for Europe in early May this year. According to the initial schedule, the ship and 5000 US soldiers were supposed to have returned to the United States in early November, but now they can only celebrate Christmas on board.
According to reports, Austin said in a ship wide broadcast speech, "Sometimes our greatest achievement is to prevent bad things from happening. In times of extreme regional tension, you are all key to preventing broader regional conflicts."
Of course, for the global market, the progress of the Red Sea route issue may receive more attention compared to American aircraft carriers drifting in the Mediterranean.
How is the escort operation progressing?
Faced with at least 15 merchant ships being attacked by Houser militants in the Red Sea route in the past month, the United States has also led countries such as Britain and Canada to launch a joint naval operation codenamed "Operation Prosperity Guardianship" this week.
According to media reports citing multiple insiders on Wednesday, the current plan is to open a safe waterway with NATO warships providing "shields" for incoming and outgoing ships, rather than commercial ships crossing the Strait of Mandate under the escort of warships. Another US official stated that the plan is still in its early stages and there is still a possibility of changes.
Spokesperson for the US National Security Council, Kirby, stated on Tuesday that ships and aircraft from multiple countries are and will continue to engage in maritime surveillance with the United States, and will take appropriate defensive actions to protect merchant ships from the threat of the Houser armed forces.
The Great Migration of Cape of Good Hope is underway
According to Swiss logistics company Kuehne+Nagel, as of late Tuesday local time, 103 container ships have diverted to the Cape of Good Hope route in southern Africa, corresponding to a capacity of 1.3 million standard containers. It is expected that this number will further increase in the coming days.
In addition to container ships, there are also oil tankers and other types of cargo ships, so the actual number of ships diverted to South Africa may be much higher. In addition to several shipping giants, BP and Norwegian National Oil Company have also announced the suspension of transportation on the Red Sea route.
Jean Charles Gordon, the ship tracking manager of trade data supplier Kpler, stated that it is now clear that the number of container ships heading to the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea has decreased. Due to the shift in trade flow, Egypt will lose important revenue from the Suez Canal, and South Africa's fuel imports in December are expected to reach a historic high as more ships need to dock for refueling.
Another very interesting observation is that Kpler found that an increasing number of ships still passing through the Strait of Mandate are displaying signals of armed guards on board to coastal authorities through their communication systems.
Dimitris Maniatis, Chief Operating Officer of Seagull Maritime, a maritime security company, revealed that the number of inquiries received by the company has "sharply increased" due to attacks by the Housa armed forces and the impact of last week's Somali pirate hijacking of the bulk carrier Ruen.
Maniatis stated that the company is currently in a "gold rush" and revealed that shipping companies now require 6-8 guards for each ship, while the company's maximum configuration so far is only 3 guards.
However, several security companies have also warned that the guards they can provide can hardly do much against drone and missile attacks.
Next focus: Bulk commodity shipping
With the large-scale migration of container ships, the market has also begun to pay attention to whether ships transporting oil and natural gas will follow them to South Africa.
According to Goldman Sachs analysis, under normal circumstances, approximately 7 million barrels of crude oil or refined oil pass through the Strait of Mandate every day, with a large portion being products shipped from Russia to Asia. The monitoring data from energy consulting firm ICIS also shows that traders such as Gunvor have begun to change the routes of liquefied natural gas ships. The world's major oil transportation company Euronav has also informed customers that it will not use the Red Sea route.
Euronav CEO Alexander Savills said that if the US initiative can provide sufficient protection, they may use the Red Sea route again, but this is still an unresolved issue.