On December 14th local time, all three major US stock indexes recorded their sixth consecutive day of gains, while the Dow Jones hit a new historical high. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43%, the Nasdaq rose 0.19%, and the S&P 500 index rose 0.26%. The market is still discussing the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy stance. In addition, the unexpected increase in retail sales in the United States in November has strengthened investors' confidence in a soft landing of the economy.
Most Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.15%. Gaotu rose by 29%, Noah Wealth rose by over 6%, NIO and TAL rose by over 5%, Xiaoniu Electric and Futu Holdings rose by over 4%, JD.com, Youke Works, and Vipshop rose by over 3%, Tuniu, Ideal Automobile, and Beike rose by over 2%, Xiaopeng Automobile, Weibo, and Alibaba rose by over 1%, and Baidu and iQiyi rose slightly.
The recent Dongfang Selection essay incident has brought about a "tremendous wealth and prosperity" for Gaotu. Over the four trading days of this week, the stock price of Gaotu has risen by over 70%. After Thursday trading, Gaotu's stock price continued to rise, rising by over 8% as of the time of publication.
The Dongfang Zhenxuan essay incident triggered the stock price of Gaotu
On Thursday local time, most Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.15%.
Gaotu rose 29% to $4.76. After the market, the stock price continued to rise, rising by 8.6% as of the time of publication.
Since the beginning of this week, with the further fermentation of the "essay writing" controversy, the popularity of the Gaotu Jiapin live broadcast room has continued to soar. On the evening of December 13th, the highest number of simultaneous online users in the Gaotu Jiapin live broadcast room exceeded 30000. According to Grey Porpoise data, the sales revenue of Gaotu Jiapin's live broadcast room in the past 7 days has been between 7.5 million yuan and 10 million yuan, with a cumulative increase of 353000 new fans. Especially in the past two days, the number of fans in the live broadcast room has increased by over 280000. As of the latest, the number of fans in the Gaotu Jiapin live broadcast room has exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.098 million, an increase of over 750000 compared to the previous 320000 before the Dongfang Zhenxuan essay incident.
At the same time, Gaotu's stock price has also been triggered, rising continuously for four trading days this week, with a cumulative increase of over 70%.
In terms of other Chinese concept stocks, Noah Wealth rose more than 6%, NIO and TAL rose more than 5%, Xiaoniu Electric and Futu Holdings rose more than 4%, JD.com, Youke Works, and Vipshop rose more than 3%, Tuniu, Ideal Automobile, and Shell rose more than 2%, Xiaopeng Automobile, Weibo, and Alibaba rose more than 1%, and Baidu and iQiyi rose slightly; New Oxygen fell more than 4%, while Miniso, Dingdong Maicai, Shuidi, and NetEase fell more than 2%. Wuxin Technology, New Oriental, Bilibili, NetEase Youdao, and Sohu fell more than 1%.
Beike rose 2.16% to $15.60. On the news, Dong Jianguo, a member of the Party Group and Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, stated that from January to November this year, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in China to the total housing transaction volume reached 37.1%, setting a new historical high. The transaction volume of second-hand housing in 7 provinces and municipalities across the country has exceeded the transaction volume of newly-built commercial housing. In addition, the solid progress of ensuring the delivery of buildings has driven a year-on-year increase of nearly 20% in the completed housing area nationwide.
Unexpected growth in retail sales in the United States in November, consumer spending remains strong
On Thursday local time, the market was still discussing the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy stance. Previously, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on Wednesday that it would maintain the interest rate range unchanged and hinted that it may cut interest rates three times next year.
Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid stated in a report that the FOMC meeting made every effort to give investors a Christmas gift in advance, all of which were wrapped in bows and additional special gifts. This in turn adds more momentum to the claim of soft landing. The market's response to this news is positive, and it seems unlikely that the Federal Reserve will fully maintain high interest rates. Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June next year, but also suggests that it may cut rates as early as March.
Economists from Goldman Sachs Group, a major Wall Street firm, have revised their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2024, predicting that the Fed will initiate a rate cutting cycle with faster and greater intensity. The Fed will cut interest rates three times in March, May, and June next year by 25 basis points, a total of 75 basis points, instead of the 50 basis point cut Goldman Sachs expected before the Fed announced its latest rate decision.
DoubleLine Capital founder, known as the "New Bond King," said on Wednesday that the 10-year US Treasury yield will continue to fall to the low range starting at 3 next year, following the Federal Reserve's new interest rate cut forecast.
In terms of economic data, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending December 9th was 202000, with an expected 220000, compared to the previous value of 220000. The number of people reapplying for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending December 2 was 1.876 million, with an expected increase of 1.887 million. The revised previous figure was 1.856 million.
The import price index of the United States in November decreased by 0.4% month on month, with an expected value of -0.80% and a previous value of -0.80%.
Retail sales in the United States increased by 0.3% month on month in November, with an expected -0.10%, compared to the previous value of -0.10%. The unexpectedly strong retail sales data, known as "terrifying data," suggests that consumer spending in November showed an unexpectedly strong momentum, marking a good start to the US Christmas holiday shopping season. Inflation shows signs of sustained slowdown, coupled with continued strong consumer spending, and expectations of a soft landing for the US economy continue to rise.
The three major US stock indexes have risen for six consecutive months, and the Dow Jones index has hit a new historical high
On December 14th local time, all three major US stock indexes recorded their sixth consecutive day of gains, while the Dow Jones hit a new historical high. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 158.11 points, or 0.43%, to 37248.35 points; The Nasdaq rose 27.60 points, or 0.19%, to 14761.56 points; The S&P 500 index rose 12.46 points, or 0.26%, to 4719.55 points.
In other markets, most European stocks closed higher, with Germany's DAX index falling 0.08%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rising 1.33%, France's CAC40 index rising 0.59%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rising 0.2%.
Popular technology stocks fluctuated, with Tesla up nearly 5%, Qualcomm and Intel up over 1%, Nvidia and Apple slightly rising, and Apple's market value reaching a new historical high of $3.08 trillion; Microsoft fell more than 2%, Amazon fell nearly 1%, and Google A, Meta, and Chaowei Semiconductor saw a slight decline.
Energy stocks rose across the board, with Murphy and Chevron up more than 3%, Brazil Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Western Petroleum, BP, and US Energy up more than 2%, and Shell up nearly 2%.
Western Oil rose by 2.71%. According to reports, on Wednesday Eastern Time, Berkshire Hathaway's filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) showed that Berkshire Hathaway had increased its holdings in Western Oil stocks for three consecutive days this week, accumulating nearly 10.5 million shares of Western Oil for approximately $588.7 million. After this increase in holdings, Berkshire's holdings of Western Oil stocks increased to 238 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of over 27.13% and a total market value of approximately 13.648 billion US dollars. In addition, Morgan Stanley has recently raised the rating of Western Oil from "hold" to "hold", with a target price of $68.
IEA: Global Oil Demand Growth Slows Rapidly
On December 14th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in its latest monthly report that global oil demand growth is rapidly slowing down as economic activity in major countries weakens, and has significantly lowered its expectations for this quarter. The IEA has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 by 90000 barrels per day to 2.3 million barrels per day, and raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 by 130000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day.
The IEA has reduced its forecast for oil demand growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 by nearly 400000 barrels per day, with weaker than expected demand from Europe, Russia, and the Middle East being the main reasons.
The IEA said in its monthly report, "There is increasing evidence of a slowdown in oil demand, which also reflects the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment."
In response to the slowdown in oil demand, OPEC+(the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied countries such as Russia) announced a new production reduction plan on November 30th, but this also brought a huge cost to the organization. The IEA stated that OPEC+'s share in the global market will be reduced to its lowest level since its establishment in 2016, with a current share of 51%.
The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged will accelerate the exit of its debt purchase plan during the pandemic period
On Thursday local time (December 14th), the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected and lowered inflation expectations, reiterating that it would maintain restrictive interest rates if necessary. The European Central Bank maintains its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.50%, deposit mechanism rate unchanged at 4.00%, and marginal lending rate unchanged at 4.75%.
As inflation declines, the European Central Bank has maintained interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive policy meeting, but has stated that it will accelerate the exit of the 1.7 trillion euros (1.8 trillion US dollars) stimulus plan during the pandemic period.
The European Central Bank has kept deposit rates at a record high of 4%, in line with the expectations of all 59 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The bank reiterated that this level will make a "significant contribution" to the goal of returning inflation to 2%.
The European Central Bank has stated that inflation has further slowed in recent months, but may rebound in the short term. They expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow down to the target level of 2% within two years.
According to the forecast of the European Central Bank, the overall inflation rate will average 5.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The report states, "Compared to the staff's forecast for September, this is equivalent to a downward adjustment of the forecast for 2023, especially for 2024."
Within 24 hours before the announcement of the decision by the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England also made separate decisions to maintain interest rates unchanged. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that discussions about rate cuts have begun, greatly boosting global market bets on rate cuts.