Starting from October, the market traded the expectation of loose liquidity after the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates. The prices of major asset classes such as the NASDAQ index, Hang Seng Technology index, US bond rates, and gold have all recovered to near the previous high points stated by the hawkish Fed in this round.
But whether to cut interest rates after stopping interest rate hikes depends on whether the US economy is experiencing a recession, and the first rate cut in the past four rounds often comes with signs of economic recession.
If the Federal Reserve really starts a rate cut cycle, there is often a risk of a pullback in the equity market, mainly due to concerns about the US economy and recession trading.