The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, stated that interest rate decisions are becoming "very balanced" and officials may have already "done enough". Huw Pill stated that inflation is still too high, but after 14 consecutive interest rate hikes at the end of 2021, there are still a large number of monetary tightening measures that have not yet taken effect.
The Bank of England suspended its most aggressive rate hike since the 1980s last month, choosing to maintain interest rates at 5.25% due to signs that inflation is being controlled. However, the 9-member Monetary Policy Committee has disagreements on this resolution, with four urging another rate hike.
Huw Pill said, "Inflation in the UK has been consistently high and is still high. We need to restore it to the target level We have done a lot of work in the past two years. Many of our policies still need to be implemented, and policy transmission is still ongoing. Whether we have done enough or whether we still have more work to do is becoming a more delicate balancing issue. However, we will take necessary measures to maintain inflation at 2% for the long term
Huw Pill also hinted that the UK economy may slow down, as British households have now exhausted the excess savings saved during the pandemic. In addition, although the government's plan to help households reduce energy costs has boosted the economy, consumer spending remains weak. He said that the current high interest rates may make weak household demand worse.
Meanwhile, Huw Pill emphasized that the 2% inflation target remains crucial. He stated that Bank of England officials are closely monitoring relevant indicators, including service sector inflation, wage growth, and labor market tension.
Currently, the market expects interest rates to remain high for a period of time. And this seems to be what Huw Ball supports. He said, "Our work is not over yet. In my opinion, it is too early to talk about exiting (monetary tightening policy). We are still in the stage of ensuring that inflation rates fall back to 2%, and we should not deviate from this goal