After COVID-19, the world is paying attention to the next growth driver of mRNA vaccine manufacturers. For Moderna, a leading mRNA vaccine company in the United States, the answer lies in China.
This month, Moderna's first factory in China started construction in Shanghai. Recently, a reporter from First Financial News learned exclusively from relevant sources that Moderna's new Shanghai production and research and development center will cover the entire chain from drug substances to the production of drugs and personalized new antigens, thereby driving the overall improvement of China's mRNA industry chain.
The Moderna Shanghai project is also comparable to Tesla in terms of energy level. According to an agreement signed between Moderna and the Minhang government obtained by a journalist from First Financial News, the investment in Moderna Phase I project is approximately 3.6 billion yuan, and the total investment in production and research and development is expected to reach the level of 1 billion US dollars in the later stage.
The industry believes that if the Moderna project can settle in Shanghai, the iterative upgrading effect on China's biopharmaceutical industry will be no less than Tesla's boosting effect on China's new energy vehicle industry.
The largest foreign-funded project in China's biopharmaceutical industry to date
In the preliminary communication with Moderna, Liu Ping, Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology, raised three expectations: firstly, he hopes that Moderna will become a "Tesla" in the biopharmaceutical industry; Secondly, we hope that Medena will be product oriented and platform based, accelerating the process of materialization; The third is to encourage and support cooperation models between enterprises and local governments.
This year, Moderna's global CEO, St é phane Bancel, has visited China three times. He started preparing to invest and settle in Shanghai in April and started construction at the Minhang production base in November, taking only 7 months, creating the "Tesla" speed in the biopharmaceutical industry.
On November 6th, Moderna's first production base in China officially started construction in the Xinzhuang Industrial Zone of Minhang, and Bansell witnessed the groundbreaking ceremony. It is reported that the land area of the project is about 270 acres, which is also the benchmark foreign investment project with the largest investment amount in the biopharmaceutical field in China so far. The output value of the project is expected to reach 1.5 billion yuan after completion.
From project preparation to factory commencement, Moderna has embarked on a "sprint" model in China. In April of this year, Bansell visited Shanghai for the first time since the epidemic was lifted. At that time, he fully felt that this international metropolis is committed to developing the pharmaceutical industry and providing health services with a solid foundation and abundant resources. He also stated that the global pharmaceutical industry is in a critical period, ushering in the digital era of pharmaceuticals, and promised to accelerate investment layout in Shanghai.
In May of this year, Moderna quickly registered a biotech company in Minhang, Shanghai - Medena (China) Biotechnology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 100 million US dollars. It is controlled by Moderna Biotech UK and its legal representative is Christoph Brackmann, Vice President of Finance.
In July of this year, Bansell visited Shanghai again to witness the investment signing between Meina and the Minhang District government, marking the official establishment of the world's leading mRNA vaccine company's headquarters in China in Shanghai.
In the following three and a half months, Meide Na completed a series of land transfer, land use approval, and construction permit procedures, and received full support from the Minhang District Government during this process.
The person in charge of Minhang Investment Promotion Center told First Financial reporters that due to Minhang's industrial advantages and the matching of existing carriers, Moderna ultimately chose to settle here.
The mRNA field is on the eve of a technological explosion
As one of the "three swordsmen" in the global mRNA field, Moderna witnessed the potential of this new biotechnology during the COVID-19 epidemic. During the epidemic, boosted by the sales of COVID-19 vaccine, the market value of Moderna was once close to US $200 billion, although it has now fallen back to the pre epidemic level.
But this does not hinder the industry's optimism about the prospects of mRNA technology. Moderna's mass production capability is currently leading globally, and its core technology, Lipid Nanoparticle Delivery (LNP) platform, is also being developed by mRNA companies worldwide.
A senior researcher in the field of mRNA told a reporter from First Financial News, "The advantage of mRNA technology is that this new technology platform is easy to design. In some vaccines and preventive drugs, it only takes 48 hours from the laboratory to the development of finished drugs, while traditional research and development techniques usually take 6-9 months. This can greatly shorten the drug development cycle and reduce research and development costs."
The above-mentioned individuals also stated that compared to traditional vaccines, the mRNA vaccine production process is simple and does not require cell culture. MRNA drugs also do not enter the nucleus, reducing the risk of integration into the host genome, and their half-life can be adjusted through modification.
According to the review by Nature Review, it is predicted that by 2035, the total market size of mRNA preventive and therapeutic drugs worldwide is expected to reach 30 billion US dollars, with the market size of preventive vaccines expected to reach 12 billion to 15 billion US dollars; The market size of personalized tumor vaccines will reach 7 billion to 10 billion US dollars; The market size of protein replacement therapy is approximately 4 billion to 5 billion US dollars. The compound growth rate of the mRNA therapy market will reach 68% between 2025 and 2035.
For Moderna, it is currently facing a trough period before the market explosion. With the decline of demand for COVID-19 vaccine, the mRNA market is stabilizing, and the company is eager to seek the next driving force for growth.
On the eve of Bansell's visit to Shanghai in November, Moderna's third quarter financial report has raised market concerns. The financial report shows that due to the sharp decline in the demand for COVID-19 vaccine, the company's sales fell by nearly half to $1.8 billion, with a loss of $3.6 billion, while the profit in the same period last year exceeded $1 billion. Moderna has planned to reduce the production of COVID-19 vaccine.
Moderna predicts that revenue in 2023 will be in the range of 6 billion to 8 billion US dollars, but by 2024, revenue will further decrease to around 4 billion US dollars.
COVID-19 vaccine is the only product approved for marketing by Moderna at present, and it is also the main source of income. During the COVID-19 epidemic, vaccine manufacturers rapidly expanded their production scale to meet the needs of mass vaccination. But now the global demand for COVID-19 vaccine has undergone major changes, which means that enterprises need to quickly adjust their production scale to adapt to the new situation.
In addition, Moderna is developing a combined vaccine of COVID-19 and influenza. This vaccine has shown positive initial results in the mid-term clinical trials recently and is expected to be approved by the US regulatory authorities in 2025. Other products within the company's pipeline include personalized tumor vaccines.
Bensell revealed that Moderna's pipeline will have up to 15 products in the next five years, a large portion of which will be launched successively in 2024 and 2025, thereby driving sustained growth in future performance.
Promote the iteration of China's biopharmaceutical industry
At present, it is not clear which products Moderna will ultimately produce at its production base in China. However, a reporter from First Financial News learned that in the early communication with relevant departments in China, Moderna's related demands include: to introduce the products that the company is currently developing and need to be imported from China, complete clinical trials and new drug applications in China, and achieve product localization.
The company also specifically mentioned that in the initial stage, it will bring over 30 under research and launched products related to infectious diseases, personalized therapies for tumors, cardiovascular diseases, liver diseases, rare diseases, and autoimmune diseases into China.
At present, at least 7 companies in China have obtained clinical approval for mRNA drugs from the drug regulatory authorities, covering fields such as infectious disease prevention, tumor treatment, and protein replacement therapy. Domestic mRNA companies include Abbott Biotech, Microorganisms, Blue Magpie Biotech, Meinuo Hengkang, Xinxin Biotech, Ruiji Biotech, and Livanda Biotech.
The biopharmaceutical industry is one of the three leading industries in Shanghai. Shanghai has a complete supply chain and innovation chain for biopharmaceuticals, as well as abundant medical resources and clinical research resources.
The industry expects that as Moderna brings advanced mRNA production lines to China, it will greatly promote the iterative upgrading of China's biopharmaceutical industry, and is expected to promote the development of upstream and downstream industries, bringing its globalization experience to China and promoting the internationalization of standards in the Chinese biopharmaceutical field. Its effect will be no less than Tesla's driving role in China's new energy vehicle industry.
The reporter from First Financial News also learned that during his visit to Shanghai in November, Bansell met with leaders of Shanghai universities. Moderna also intends to open its mRNA technology platform to top domestic universities for industry academia transformation and application, and collaborate with domestic academic institutions to develop new drugs, helping domestic academic institutions accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.
At the same time, the company hopes that government departments can provide coordination on relevant policies to facilitate the company's greater support in clinical trials and drug declaration, so as to enter the green channel of approval and review more quickly.
Given the characteristics of mRNA as a new technology, Moderna also hopes to break through existing rules in drug registration, clinical trial management, production processes, and other aspects within an appropriate range to adapt to the development of new technologies.