Famous Apple analyst Guo Mingxuan continues to push for periscope lenses.
In the latest market research newsletter, Guo Mingyi stated that looking forward to 2024, the fastest shipping brands of smartphones equipped with periscope cameras globally are Apple and Huawei. According to his prediction, the shipment volume of models equipped with periscope cameras by these two top mobile phone brands will double.
Guo Mingqian believes that the yield of the iPhone 15 Pro Max's quadruple reflector prism (a periscope solution) assembly business has significantly improved. Apple is expected to launch the iPhone 16 Pro in September 2024, which will also be equipped with a quadruple prism design. It is estimated that iPhone shipments equipped with a quadruple prism design will increase by 160% year-on-year in 2024.
At the same time, Huawei will also launch P70, P70 Pro, and P70 Art in the first half of 2024. This series of phones will also be equipped with periscope cameras, and due to the use of its own Kirin chip, it is estimated that the shipment volume of the P70 series in 2024 will increase by 100% year-on-year.
Prior to the release of the iPhone 15 series, Guo Mingyi called the "periscope" drum and shout, claiming to be the biggest selling point of the iPhone 15 series.
In September 2023, Apple released its annual new phone as scheduled, with the high-end iPhone 15 Pro Max equipped with a periscope lens and supporting 5x optical zoom. This is the best optical zoom performance phone in Apple's history and can be called the Apple version of the "telescope". Previously, the iPhone could only achieve up to 3x optical zoom.
According to public information, the principle of periscope lenses is to learn from the changes in the propagation path of light caused by periscopes, allowing optical zoom to be completed inside the body.
According to Huajin Securities, the "periscope type zoom" lens is commonly known as the "internal zoom" lens. Due to the optical zoom being completed inside the body, it is easy to install filters without the need for additional lens barrels. The periscope lens draws inspiration from the changes in the transmission line of light caused by the periscope, so that the sensor of the mobile phone camera does not need to be on the same horizontal line as the lens. Instead, it folds the light path through the reflector and enters the camera sensor. This allows the sensor to be horizontally arranged inside the body, effectively shortening the distance between the sensor and the focal point, thereby reducing the thickness of the phone.
It is reported that the most prominent advantage of periscope zoom cameras is that they can allow users to capture distant objects or scenery without any lens movement, and the effect is similar to that of a DSLR camera. The biggest challenge is that the zoom ability is fixed at a certain value, and compared to the main camera with a large aperture, using a periscope camera to capture images has drawbacks such as dim light or artificially overexposed light.
The so-called quadruple reflection prism refers to the Apple swapping the position of the mirror and the mirror group. The light path first passes through the mirror group, then folds through the mirror, and finally reaches the sensor. To make the light path distance long enough, Apple did not choose the commonly used 45& Deg; A reflecting prism with an angle of approximately 31 degrees; Deg; This results in a longer optical path for the light to "walk" during the refraction process. Based on known information, the light ultimately shines into the CMOS and is reflected four times in the middle. Therefore, the iPhone 15 Pro Max telephoto scheme is called "quadruple reflection prism technology".
Previously, the Huawei P30 Pro and OPPO Reno 10x zoom versions were equipped with periscope lenses, which attracted a lot of manufacturers to follow up. However, due to their more complex structure, more expensive costs, and higher requirements for anti shake performance, the number of models they are equipped with is decreasing year by year.
Market insiders believe that as Apple adopts periscope telephoto lenses, driving the development of camera module reduction and thinning technology, periscope cameras will be promoted to more models in the future, and the share of periscope cameras in Android machines is expected to continue to increase.
According to research firm Sigmantell, the shipment volume of periscope cameras is expected to exceed 400 million in 2023.
From the perspective of industry chain opportunities, the upstream market of the periscope lens industry chain is mainly composed of component suppliers, with core components including prisms, voice coil motors (VCMs), lenses, and CIS; The midstream is a module packaging manufacturer and requires equipment manufacturers to conduct assembly testing; Downstream mainly include various smartphone terminal manufacturers.
Guo Mingyi pointed out that Daliguang is the main supplier of periscope lenses for Apple and Huawei in 2024, with supply proportions of 85% -90% and 50% -60%, respectively. Due to the significant improvement in order yield of Daliguang Apple since the fourth quarter of 2023 and its contribution to profits, coupled with a significant increase of approximately 130% in total periscope orders in 2024, it is expected that its profitability in 2024 will exceed market consensus.
Guo Minghui previously highlighted Shunyu Optics (02382. HK) as the largest supplier of iPhone 14 series wide angle camera 7P lenses, significantly surpassing Taiwanese company Daliguang in terms of supply share. He also expects Shunyu to receive iPhone periscope lens orders as soon as 2024.
Shunyu Optics is the first manufacturer in the industry to mass-produce periscope lens camera modules, launching 5X and 10X periscope optical zoom modules. According to a research report from Zhejiang Securities, Shunyu Optics' main customers account for a total market share of up to 90% in smartphones using periscope lenses.
Looking back at the A-share market, Changying Precision (300115. SZ) stated on the interactive platform in 2019 that the company provides periscope camera module brackets for Huawei P30 phones and high-end waterproof Type-C connectors. China Optics (002189. SZ) recently stated that the company's orders for periscope micro prisms used in the mobile phone industry have increased significantly compared to last year.
Crystal Optoelectronics (002273. SZ) stated that as the earliest supplier of periscope prisms for Android phones, the company has been supplying micro prism products for periscope cameras for Android mobile terminals and other non A system mobile terminals both domestically and internationally. In this year's new models for major North American customers, the company has also become a major supplier of its multi reflection prism modules.
Oufeiguang (002456. SZ) stated that the company has become a mainstream supplier of high pixel camera modules in the industry, and has made smooth progress in the optical lens business. The penetration of high-end lenses has accelerated, and the product structure continues to be optimized. At present, we have achieved mass production of 100 million pixel 7P optical lenses, periscope 3X telephoto lenses, internal focus lenses, and other products, and supplied them to the supply chain of mainstream domestic mobile phone manufacturers.
Lante Optics (688127. SH) stated on its investor interaction platform in June this year that its micro prism products are mainly used in the field of periscope cameras.
In addition, institutional insiders believe that the special demand for periscope lenses has also given rise to a group of suppliers specializing in equipment testing and assembly, including Saiteng, Kerui Technology, Bozhong Precision, and ZhiCube. Smart Cube (301312. SZ) and Kerui Technology (002957. SZ) both claimed on the investor interaction platform in September that the company has the ability to inspect or assemble equipment for periscope camera lenses.