On October 10th local time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook, predicting a global economic growth rate of 3.0% this year, which is consistent with the forecast in July; But it is expected that the global economic growth rate will be 2.9% in 2024, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the forecast in July. The IMF stated that although the global economy is currently recovering from the severe shocks of the past few years, the recovery process is slow and uneven.
IMF President Georgieva said at the opening ceremony of the 2023 annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank recently that although the global economic recovery showed some resilience in the first half of this year, thanks to the high demand of the service industry, and the anti inflation has also made real progress, increasing the possibility of a "soft landing" of the global economy, it must not be taken lightly. Global economic growth is still far below the average level of 3.8% 20 years before the COVID-19 epidemic, The medium-term growth outlook has also further weakened.
In addition to lowering economic growth expectations, the IMF also emphasized the differentiation of economic growth rates among global economies in this report. The IMF said that although the global economy has continued to recover from the epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the cost of living crisis, the differentiation of various regions is growing.
Compared to emerging markets and developing economies, the slowdown in economic growth in developed economies is more pronounced. The IMF predicts that the growth rate of developed economies will decrease from 2.6% last year to 1.5% this year, and further decrease to 1.4% next year. But among them, the US economy unexpectedly rose. The IMF predicts that the US economic growth rate is expected to be 2.1% and 1.5% respectively in this year and the next two years. The economic growth of the eurozone is weaker than expected, with expected economic growth rates of 0.7% and 1.2% for this year and the next two years, respectively.
In addition, the IMF predicts that the UK's economic growth rate will decrease from 4.1% last year to 0.5% this year. The IMF stated that the decline in UK economic growth reflects the ongoing impact of monetary policy tightening and the impact of high energy prices.
For emerging markets and developing economies, the IMF expects their overall growth rate to slow slightly, from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in 2023 and 2024. Differentiation also exists in emerging markets and developing economies. For example, the economic growth rates of emerging markets and developing economies in Europe have been raised to 2.4% this year, while the economic growth rates of emerging markets and developing economies in Asia have been lowered to 5.2% and 4.8% respectively this year and next.
Due to the tightening of monetary policy and the decline in international commodity prices, it is expected that the global inflation rate will decrease from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% this year, and further decrease to 5.8% in 2024; The core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) will decrease to 6.3% this year and 5.3% in 2024. Overall, the core inflation rate will decline more slowly, and inflation in most economies is expected to return to target levels by 2025.
The report believes that although some extreme risks, such as severe turbulence in the banking industry, have eased since April, the overall risk still leans towards the downside.
Firstly, if climate change and geopolitical conflicts intensify again, commodity prices will become more volatile, which is a serious risk for reducing inflation. Since June, as the "OPEC+" countries have extended the deadline for oil production reduction, oil prices have risen sharply, and food prices have also remained high. If the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates, it may further disturb food prices and bring greater difficulties to many low-income countries, which will pose serious macroeconomic risks in the future.
Secondly, although both basic inflation and overall inflation have decreased, they are still at high levels. Due to the tight labor market and unfavorable energy price situation, inflation may become more stubborn, requiring the central bank to take greater action.
In addition, many countries have high debt levels, rising financing costs, slowing economic growth, and a significant mismatch between their growing demand and available financial resources. This has made many countries more vulnerable in the face of crises and requires a renewed focus on fiscal risk management.
Therefore, the IMF suggests that many countries are approaching the peak of their tightening cycle and do not need further tightening; To increase long-term economic growth, it is necessary to achieve structural reforms, particularly focusing on governance, corporate regulation, and external sector reforms. Meanwhile, IMF Chief Economist Pierre Olivier Gulansha stated that multilateral cooperation helps ensure better growth outcomes for all countries, and countries should strive to limit geopolitical fragmentation and restore trust in rule-based multilateral frameworks to improve transparency and policy certainty, helping to promote global common prosperity. (Economic Daily reporter Liu Chang)