(Author Wang Yuquan, founding partner of Haiyin Capital)
Yesterday we just said that the OpenAI drama is still going on, and soon there is a new plot, which updates even faster than short dramas. However, things did not follow the script many people had imagined, and Altman did not achieve the return of the king, ultimately leaving OpenAI.
On November 20th, Altman posted a photo on Twitter of himself holding OpenAI's visitor ID, accompanied by a sentence stating that this was his last time entering OpenAI as a visitor.
This is like a posture of regaining the throne, and netizens are starting to compare him with Steve Jobs, saying that it took Steve Jobs 12 years to return to Apple and Altman 48 hours to complete it.
A few hours later, media outlets such as The Information and The Wall Street Journal reported that the negotiations between OpenAI and Altman had broken down and Altman would not return as CEO. Moreover, the new CEO is not the Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati mentioned a few days ago, but Emmett Shear.
This has left many people puzzled, wondering why a new CEO suddenly appeared. In fact, Emmett Shear also has some entrepreneurial experience and is the co founder of the game live streaming platform Twitch. However, after the company was acquired by Amazon, he turned to a consultant.
Since Altman cannot return, people are undoubtedly most concerned about his next steps, and there have been rumors before that he will start a new company with his good brother Greg Brockman.
I said yesterday that the biggest highlight of this drama is Microsoft's actions. A few hours after the negotiations between Altman and OpenAI collapsed, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella tweeted that Altman and Greg would join Microsoft together and lead a new advanced artificial intelligence research team.
However, Microsoft claims to maintain its previous partnership with OpenAI and is looking forward to new actions from Emmett and the team.
That is to say, Altman and OpenAI are competing against each other, while Microsoft is profiting by attracting leading figures in the field of generative AI without disrupting their cooperation with OpenAI.
This indeed demonstrates Nadella's rich management experience and excellent operational research capabilities. Some people have commented that Nadella is a "killer CEO", meaning she has exceptional abilities like a "killer application".
In contrast, OpenAI appears a bit immature, as they have already developed rapidly and become leaders in the field of generative AI, but now they seem to be self destructing the Great Wall. Why do you say that?
In fact, the self destruction of the Great Wall has long been a lesson in the history of technology entrepreneurship, and the most typical case is Xiantong Semiconductor.
In 1956, eight young scientists joined the laboratory founded by Dr. William Shockley, the father of transistors. But they were dissatisfied with Shockley's management style and left together to start a business, which is why Dr. Shockley referred to them as the "eight rebellions".
They drew investment from a company called Fairchild, which produces photography equipment, and established Fairchild Semiconductor Company.
During his time at the company, Robert Noyes, a member of the "Eight Rebels," invented planar integrated circuits, Dr. Gordon Moore proposed the famous "Moore's Law," and countless new inventions were born. The company's sales doubled every year.
However, Xiantong was invested by someone else, and then CEO John Carter used the company's profits to fund and acquire unprofitable enterprises.
The 'Eight Rebels' were no longer willing, and as a result, their core teams left one after another. For example, after Noyes and Moore left, they founded Intel, while Sales Director Sanders founded AMD.
The company they founded gradually became an industry giant, but Xiantong Semiconductor has gone downhill.
Now let's take a look at OpenAI, and it can be said that they have some resemblance to Xiantong, both of which are internal conflicts that led to the departure of core personnel. Two of the "Six Kings" on the OpenAI board of directors have left, and the remaining three are not employees of the company, with only Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever working.
And their new CEO Emmett Shear seems to want to slow down his views on artificial intelligence. He has previously tweeted that if the development speed of artificial intelligence in the past was 10, it should be reduced to 1 or 2.
The problem is that the competition for generative AI has already begun. A group of senior employees had already left OpenAI and founded Antiopic AI, becoming one of the biggest competitors. Now, with Altman's departure, more employees are bound to leave.
Even if OpenAI wants to slow down due to its idealistic beliefs, others will only accelerate to catch up, and competitors will not stop because of OpenAI's ideals, but will hope to take the opportunity to surpass.
More importantly, OpenAI appears to have resolved Altman's dispute on the surface, preparing to quickly cut through the chaos and enter the next stage. However, their unique corporate structure has not changed, which means that the drama of randomly changing CEOs may also happen to Emmett.
Even though Emmett explicitly stated that if necessary, it would strongly promote significant governance structural changes, if they could be easily changed, it would not have caused such a big dispute.
Under the existing structure, the board of directors may feel that the power is in hand, but from an investor's perspective, OpenAI carries a huge risk of uncertainty as it limits the performance of excellent CEOs, which naturally leads to investment concerns.
Although OpenAI's revenue has improved, achieving AGI still requires significant investment. So, if even investors dare not continue to support it, how can they achieve their ideal of achieving AGI?
However, even if the prospects of OpenAI are not optimistic, it may be a good thing for the overall development of the AI industry!
According to analysis firm Endeavor Insights, Fairchild Semiconductor has only been established 12 years ago and has spun off 31 companies, giving birth to innovative seeds like dandelions.
The OpenAI battle seems to have come to an end, but the best outcome is not for Altman to find a successor, nor for Microsoft to profit from it. Instead, it hopes to sow more innovative seeds for the AI industry like a fairy child.
(This article only represents the author's personal views)