US employment data raises expectations for further interest rate hikes, and Summers warns of increased risks of an economic "hard landing"
阿豆学长长ov
发表于 2023-10-13 19:54:07
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Biden could not have imagined that the United States' intervention in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would cause a "big bang" at home. The United States, which is busy meddling in other countries' affairs, has not even dealt with its own problems, which is obviously ironic.
During this period, the United States is still very busy around the world, considering providing military assistance to Ukraine on a regular basis, and holding military exercises with some allies in the South China Sea and the Philippines to deter China. After the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the United States also acted quickly. The Biden administration expressed support for Israel and immediately mobilized aircraft carriers, warships, and fighter jets to the Middle East to support its allies.
However, the United States, which serves as the "world police" everywhere, can be said to often interfere with external affairs and guide other countries, but its domestic affairs are handled very poorly. As soon as American soldiers arrived in the Mediterranean, a big thunderstorm exploded domestically.
According to a report from Reference News Network, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the number of non farm workers increased by 336000 last month, a significant increase compared to the previous two months.
This data is one of the important criteria for Federal Reserve officials to judge economic acceleration. After a significant increase, it was reported that the possibility of raising interest rates by the end of the year has increased from 48% to 56%. Some Federal Reserve officials are considering whether to raise benchmark profits again.
It is worth noting that in the past, the benchmark interest rate has increased by more than 5 percentage points. Many officials in the Federal Reserve now support raising interest rates again this year, which will cause interest rates to rise again.
Former US Treasury Secretary Summers is pessimistic about this situation. During a program, Summers believed that although the rise in employment may seem good news, it also indicates that interest rate hikes are gradually failing, posing a risk of a hard landing for our economy.
As for why Summers holds this view, there may be the following reasons.
Firstly, according to the general situation, a long-term increase in benchmark interest rates by the Federal Reserve will lead to a decrease in the amount of money available for liquidity in the market, a decrease in investment that businesses can attract, and a higher cost of operations, resulting in cost reduction and layoffs. Therefore, it is reasonable to say that the Fed's interest rate hike should have a negative impact on employment.
However, the current employment data in the United States is exactly the opposite, and it is possible that the interest rate hike measures proposed by Summers may not be as effective as before, which may increase the risk of a US economic recession.
Secondly, the interest rate hike policy of the United States was one of the ways in the past to disrupt the economies of other countries and harvest to fill its own holes. However, at present, if the United States wants to repeat its strategy, it is estimated that it will only swing its whip at itself. The global system of the US dollar is being challenged, and many countries are launching local currency transactions. The United States may find it difficult to reap the benefits of the world's rapid recovery, but it will face major problems due to its huge economic hole.
So, the current situation of the US economy is very severe, but at this time, the White House is still "meddling" everywhere, spreading the show, throwing money and equipment everywhere, and going to other places to show off, undoubtedly feeling a bit "puffed up". Biden probably didn't expect that the "big thunder" in the United States was already a state of irrepressibility.
How the United States will fight the fire, turn the tide of its own economy, and continue to maintain its authority in this world? There are too many problems to face, so let's wait and see the "extreme operation" of the United States.
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