How did China become the world's largest source of development financing?
阿豆学长长ov
发表于 2023-11-11 02:43:51
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The latest data shows how closely China is connected to other countries.
A summary released on Monday shows that China is the world's largest source of international development financing, providing approximately $1.34 trillion in loans and grants to 20985 projects in 165 low-income and middle-income countries over the past 22 years.
The publisher of this outline is AidData, a research laboratory under William and Mary College in Williamsburg, Virginia. The laboratory aims to establish the most authoritative database on China's development and financing work by searching for loan documents and other first-hand materials from the borrowing country government itself and other sources. The Chinese government tends to blur these data information.
The conclusion of AidData is that China's active lending has another side, as the country has become the world's largest official creditor, addressing urgent issues while also working to prevent potential future problems for the project.
Another study conducted by Rand Corp., based on data from AidData and other sources, estimated that during the period it studied, state-owned banks and enterprises in China provided almost six times as much funding for development projects as the United States.
In October, Beijing was the symbol of the third "the Belt and Road" Forum.
China's generous aid gives the impression that it is better at implementing bold engineering projects than wealthy Western countries. Recently, China's "the Belt and Road" Summit was held in Beijing to celebrate the leader's vision for this project led by China.
Now, China and developing countries are digesting the impact of China's international efforts. China's own economy is weakening and needs to increase spending domestically. Poor borrowing countries find it difficult to repay debts for some projects, which sometimes have problems. Western governments, which are critical of China's development assistance, are also promoting their own funding activities; For example, this week, the United States International Development Finance Corporation announced hundreds of millions of dollars in port development loans for Greece and Sri Lanka.
China has indeed shown new signs of caution, but according to data from AidData, in 2021 alone, China's annual related expenditures reached $80 billion, which is still the largest source of international development financing for low-income countries compared to the approximately $60 billion related expenditures of the United States. Despite this, as Western countries increasingly unite against China, AidData also pointed out that in 2021, the Group of Seven major economies had a total expenditure of $84 billion, surpassing China.
It is now time to repay the loans for China's past construction projects.
AidData stated that, excluding interest, the borrowing country's debt to China ranges from approximately $11000 to $1.5 trillion. About 80% of the debt is borne by developing countries facing financial pressure, which puts billions of dollars worth of projects at risk of default.
A report specifically targeting sub Saharan Africa found that the region has benefited from its relationship with China.
AidData stated that 55% of loans issued by China have entered the principal repayment period, and this proportion will climb to 75% by 2030. Brad Parks, Executive Director of AidData, said that because of grace periods (some of which were extended during the COVID-19 crisis), many countries are still "just beginning" to repay Chinese loans.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in another report specifically targeting sub Saharan Africa that the impoverished region has benefited from its relationship with China, with exports to China doubling since 2000, most of which are raw materials; As China becomes a new source of infrastructure funding for the region, it has become the largest bilateral official creditor in the region, but these debts are highly concentrated in a few countries. The IMF stated that it is worth noting that the debt owed to China is not the main reason for the sharp increase in public debt in the region over the past 15 years. The increase in debt is mainly caused by domestic commercial borrowing.
China has taken significant measures to protect its accounts receivable. In a strategy outlined by AidData, China has provided new RMB loans to Argentina, allowing this South American country to repay other entities such as the IMF that use the RMB as an internationally convertible currency. The goal of this strategy is to enable Argentina to repay Chinese loans in difficult to obtain US dollars. China also used the terms of the original loan agreement to withdraw cash from escrow accounts, which were funded by Angola's oil revenue and Suriname's telecommunications revenue.
AidData stated that the Chinese government is developing increasingly strict safeguard measures to resist the risk of loans not being repaid.
AidData stated that the Chinese government is weakening the role of banks such as the Export Import Bank of China, whose loan decisions are based on government policies.
According to AidData, in order to prevent potential problems in the future of the project, there are even more substantial adjustments to strengthen risk management related to its loans. For example, 75% of recent loans require collateral and insist that China has priority over other creditors in terms of recourse. AidData stated that the Chinese government is also weakening the role of banks such as the Export Import Bank of China, whose loan decisions are based on government policies. Instead, China is collaborating on projects with higher standard multilateral lending institutions such as the World Bank and providing syndicated loans through commercial banks.
AidData's Parks said that the reduction in the politicization of loans and the strengthening of risk management may make it difficult for the US government to continue accusing Beijing of "only focusing on scale and speed, not security".
At the recent summit, a policy document from the Chinese government stated that the inspiration for the Chinese government came from the trade that has connected Egypt, Babylon, India, and Chinese civilization for thousands of years. It built bridges for believers in Buddhism, Christianity, and Islam, promoting mutual learning, prosperity, and cooperation.
Despite the clear goals of the Chinese government, the trust of many countries in China has continued to decline. In a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center this year on 24 countries, two-thirds of the respondents held a negative view of China, indicating that the Chinese government has increased difficulty in converting financial aid into popularity. However, political analysts believe that the Chinese government has gained an advantage by linking its spending to the interests of many country leaders (a process sometimes mocked as elite capture) and transforming this support into support from organizations such as the United Nations.
The RAND report states that although China's financial assistance is significantly ahead, the United States' assistance may be underestimated due to its relatively dispersed nature. Rand Corporation, funded by the US Department of Defense, stated that relevant calculations often miss out on some private sector investments and cannot estimate the value of institutional construction or predict its sustainability. In fact, the company suggests that Washington better carry out related work, including by "publishing a single, unclassified, and publicly available development strategy.
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