On October 10, Novo Nordisk announced that the Phase 3 clinical trial of Simeaglutide for the treatment of kidney failure and chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes was stopped nearly a year ahead of schedule. The reason for this is that the interim analysis showed that the trial was successful. This also means that the "panacea" known as Semaglutide, the boundary further extended to the field of chronic kidney disease.

Affected by the news, Novo Nordisk shares jumped 6.27% to $98.84 last night, approaching the all-time high set on September 11, and its total market value returned to $450 billion.
Following the rise of weight loss drugs, innovative drugs and other plates, what kind of waves will the A-share market set off?
The elixir breaks new ground
Semaglutide injection (Novo Nordisk) is a novel long-acting glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue from Novo Nordisk.
The drug is becoming a "panacea" due to its success in many areas, from hypoglycemia, weight loss, NASH, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, obstructive sleep apnea, intermittent claudication, dyslipidemia and more.
Novo Nordisk announced on the 10th that it will early terminate the Phase 3 clinical trial FLOW of Semaglutide in the treatment of type 2 diabetes patients with renal insufficiency and patients with chronic kidney disease. The Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC), which oversees the study, summarized the interim data and said that efficacy had met the predetermined target of ending the trial early, so it recommended stopping the FLOW clinical. Clinical results for Novo Nordisk are still blind, and data are expected to be available in the first half of 2024.
FLOW is a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial that was initiated in 2019 and enrolled 3,534 patients in 28 countries. The primary goal of the trial was to compare the effects of injecting 1mg of semaglutide with placebo in preventing the progression of renal impairment and reducing the risk of renal and cardiovascular death in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD).
When the news came out, it blew up the market. Shares of Novo Nordisk in the US jumped last night.
Where are the next A-share beneficiaries?
In August this year, Novo Nordisk exploded due to semaglutide, and then detonated A-share related concept stocks. In the industrial chain, downstream drug-related companies took the lead in breaking out, Changshan Pharmaceutical became the largest bull stock, and Bo Rui Pharmaceutical also rose. Subsequently, the middle stream API, innovative drug companies collectively rose, Wuxi Kant, Kelaiying, Hanyu Pharmaceutical, etc., in one fell swoop to reverse the long-term downturn.
This time, Novo Nordisk has exploded again, who is the next beneficiary?
Industry insiders pointed out that some supporting medical device plate may be the final field of GLP-1 boom. The medical device plate in the pharmaceutical market since August, is also the most sluggish plate, but its potential still cannot be ignored.
In the subdivision of medical devices, injection pens, needles, rubber plugs, and cassette bottles have important companies to pay attention to.
First, the injection pen. Insulin and GLP-1 injections are generally performed with pre-filled insulin pens. According to Deppon Securities medical model estimates, the global demand for insulin +GLP-1 end injection pens in 2030 is 9.542 billion, of which the GLP-1 injection pen market size is 26.38 billion yuan. The listed companies involved are mainly Maide Medical and Meihao Medical. In addition, federal pharmaceutical, Ganli Pharmaceutical, etc., are also worthy of attention.
In terms of disposable needles, you can pay attention to Conde Lai, adopt shares, Wuzhou Medical, etc.
In terms of rubber stoppers, GLP-1 high-end injection field turns to the use of coated rubber stoppers (to improve the long-term stability of drugs and solve pollution and safety problems), taking Hualan Stock as an example, the average sales price of coated/conventional rubber stoppers in 2021 is 3,629.9/694.3 yuan per 10,000.
The leader of the cassette bottle is Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, the company has the production capacity of pre-pot-sealing rubber plug components, and carries out the annual output of 1 billion biologics rubber plug technology transformation project, which will continue to benefit from the expansion of GLP-1 downstream demand.
In addition to the above areas, peptide equipment related companies include Dongfulong and Chutian Technology.
Some of these companies, such as Medtech, Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, Federal Pharmaceutical, Gan Li Pharmaceutical and Hualan, have seen their share prices gradually move out of trend. And some companies are still in the bottom stage, such as beautiful Medical, Dongfulong, Chutian Technology, adopt shares and Conde Lai.
Will medical device ETFs have a stake in the future?
These companies mentioned above are basically components of the medical device ETF, once the hot spot is transmitted to the medical device sector, then the medical device ETF can get a share of the "miracle medicine" boom?
At present, among the medical device ETF products, the most important is the Yongwin China Securities All-Index medical device ETF (159883), which was established in April 2021, and the current share of the latest scale is 3.949 billion, and the net asset size is 2.211 billion yuan. However, since the establishment of the product for more than two years, the cumulative decline has reached 44.19%, and the unit net worth is nearly 0.5581 yuan, which is very fully adjusted.
In addition, China Merchants Securities All-Index medical Device ETF (159898) was established in May 2021, the current scale of 252 million yuan, since its establishment has also fallen by 44.19%.
Huitianfu China Securities All-Index Medical Device ETF (159797) was established in April 2022, the current scale is less than 100 million yuan, down 14% since its establishment.
In addition, Huaxia Fund is currently issuing a new Huaxia China Securities All-Index medical device ETF (562600), the subscription period is from October 9 to October 20 this year, and the above products track the same index.
Combined with the trend of medical device ETFs, they have experienced a long decline and are currently in the bottom platform stage, and the cost performance is more and more worthy of attention.
Storage Kefan, manager of Yongwin medical device ETF fund, said in the fund report that medical devices involve parts, systems, algorithms, biology and other fields, and the use has a certain threshold, and customers have a strong use of stickiness. From following innovation to original innovation, Chinese enterprises have a deeper understanding of their own positioning and value, and equipment leaders with continuous research and development innovation and channel expansion are expected to usher in vigorous development.
In addition, near the end of the year, the latest view of Chu Kefan believes that the market will do the valuation switch, gradually switch to the valuation in 2024, the medical device sector COVID-19-related business can basically clear this year, the year-on-year performance of the sector in 2024 is relatively optimistic, and the year-end valuation switch is relatively friendly for medical devices as a whole. In addition, continue to pay attention to the breakthrough of new technologies in the field of medical devices, especially the progress of product development and approval of domestic companies, will bring continuous catalysis to the medical device market.