In 2015, world leaders pledged to reduce carbon emissions and work together to address climate change.
But now they are intensifying production of oil, natural gas, and coal, which goes against their promises.
The top 20 energy producing countries intend to double the mining output of fossil fuels by 2030, which will reach the critical value required to control climate warming.
The contradiction between climate commitment and energy production is most evident in the United Arab Emirates, which will host the annual climate summit called COP28 on November 30th.
Diplomats, environmentalists, and business leaders will gather in Dubai to discuss how countries can achieve their climate goals and debate whether to issue a statement around phasing out fossil fuels in the coming years.
In July of this year, officials from the United Arab Emirates stated that by 2030, the country's greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 19% compared to 2019. But the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. plans to increase its oil production capacity from the current 4 million barrels per day to 5 million barrels by 2027.
According to a new report released on Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Program, the non-profit organization Stockholm Environment Institute, and several other institutions, the company also plans to increase its liquefied natural gas production from the current 6 million tons per year to 15.6 million tons by 2028.
This study analyzed 20 countries that account for 80% of global energy production. In 2015, world leaders held a meeting in Paris, promising to slow down coal, oil, and natural gas production to prevent temperatures from rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre industrial levels.
Even if some countries make positive efforts, they will be offset by the actions of other countries.
By 2030, the United States is expected to reduce coal production by 43%, while China plans to reduce it by 15%. The report states that this reduction in production will be less than the increase in coal production by India, Indonesia, and Russia.
Although the United States is gradually phasing out coal, its oil production will reach and maintain record levels of 19-21 million barrels per day between 2024 and 2050. The report states that natural gas production in the United States is expected to continue to grow, reaching 1.2 trillion cubic meters by 2050. Most of these oil and natural gas are used for export.
This report is based on the predictions and publicly available documents of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Some countries have joined initiatives such as the Global Methane Pledge and the Net Zero Producers Forum to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which scientists claim are the main culprits of climate change. Michael Lazarus, a senior scientist at SEI and the main author of this report, stated that although these agreements may reduce pollution caused by fossil fuel production, they will not have a significant impact on overall emissions.
These initiatives have not mentioned the necessity of reducing fossil fuel production per se, nor have any countries committed to reducing coal, oil, and natural gas production to meet the goal of controlling the increase in temperature from pre industrial levels to within 1.5 degrees Celsius, "Lazarus said. Most of these countries, especially those with large oil and gas reserves, plan to increase production
Ploy Achakulwisut, a researcher at SEI and the main author of this report, stated that although significant progress is being made in energy from carbon free solar and wind energy, this benefit is being weakened by ongoing fossil fuel production.
Achakulwisut stated that although the emerging signs of clean energy transformation are encouraging, the persistent global production gap poses risks to achieving a well managed and fair energy transformation, which conflicts with the climate commitments of governments around the world.