In the third quarter of this year, it was difficult for the overall transaction volume of the national real estate market to be normalized, and some intermediary service platforms were also facing challenges.
On the evening of November 8th, Shell released its financial results for the third quarter of 2023. According to the financial report, the total transaction volume of Shell in the third quarter was 655.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The net revenue was 17.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and the net profit was 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.4%. After adjustment, the net profit was 2.159 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%.
In terms of main business, the net revenue of Shell's existing and new housing businesses decreased to varying degrees in the third quarter. The total transaction volume of the stock housing business in the third quarter was 439 billion yuan, with a net revenue of 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%. The total transaction volume of the new house business was 192.1 billion yuan, with a net revenue of 5.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%.
As of the end of the third quarter, the number of active stores in Shell was 40903, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and the number of active brokers was 399048, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%.
At a time when traditional main businesses are facing challenges, Shell's emerging business continues to grow. The revenue of non real estate transaction services in the third quarter increased by 112% year-on-year, accounting for over 30% of total revenue, compared to 15% in the same period last year.
In terms of home decoration and home furnishing business, due to its independence from real estate trading services, Shell's contract amount in the third quarter was 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.6%, and its net revenue increased by 72.1% to 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. The contribution profit margin of the home decoration and home furnishing business in the third quarter remained at 29.1%.
In addition, Shell's net revenue from emerging services and other services in the third quarter was 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202.7%, thanks to the growth in the scale of rental management and operation business. As of the end of the third quarter, the number of "worry free rental" properties under management in the shell rental business has increased from 50000 units in the same period last year to 160000 units, with an occupancy rate of 95.9%.
In terms of contribution from key cities, in the third quarter of this year, Shell had two months of revenue exceeding 100 million yuan in Shanghai, becoming the third city after Beijing and Hangzhou to have a monthly revenue exceeding 100 million yuan. Cities such as Wuhan, Chengdu, and Guangzhou also achieved a month on month revenue growth rate of over 50% in the third quarter.
Starting from July this year, Shell has expanded beyond traditional real estate trading services and made organizational adjustments. In addition to the main business of real estate brokerage, we will increase investment in decoration, Huiju, and Beihaojia businesses.
The newly established Beihao Family Business Line is seen by the outside world as a symbol of Beike's entry into the real estate development field, but Beike did not provide further explanation for its specific development direction.
For the fourth quarter's performance, Shell expects its total net income to range from 18 billion yuan to 18.5 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 7.5% to 10.5% from the same quarter in 2022.
From a national market perspective, with the gradual release of housing demand stimulated by the New Policy, the transaction heat of the real estate market in October has also decreased, and the market still needs further recovery.
According to monitoring data from Kerui, the transaction area of new houses in 30 key cities nationwide in October was 13.83 million square meters, an increase of 9% month on month and a decrease of 4% year on year. The transaction heat in first tier cities has decreased, and the transaction area in Beijing has decreased by 11% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of over 40%; Shanghai decreased by 31% month on month and 6% year-on-year; In October, the total transaction area of new houses in four first tier cities was 2.14 million square meters, a decrease of 8% month on month and 12% year-on-year.
In terms of second-hand housing, in October, the second-hand housing prices in the top ten core cities in China all fell month on month. According to the China Real Estate Index System's Hundred Cities Price Index, second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities decreased by 0.37% month on month and 1.8% year-on-year in October.
Among them, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing fell to around 11000 units in October, a decrease of 25.3% month on month, and the average listing price was about 75700 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.22% month on month; The number of second-hand housing listings in Shanghai has increased, but the trading volume has not significantly improved. The average listing price is about 65300 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.26% month on month; The average second-hand listing prices in Guangzhou and Shenzhen also decreased by 0.31% and 0.3% month on month, respectively.
Kerui predicts that the number of hot cities and hot selling projects will continue to decrease in November, and transactions are not optimistic. The market repair needs to be carried out by the heat of the core cities, and the current market confidence has reached a bottom. In addition, the purchasing power of residents is insufficient, and the overall real estate market will still face a long period of adjustment.