On November 19th local time, the three major US stock indexes closed with mixed gains and losses. The Nasdaq rose 1.04%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.28%.
Most of the "Technology Seven sisters" rose. Nvidia rose nearly 5%, with its market value increasing by $168.3 billion overnight (approximately RMB 1218.3 billion).
Tesla and Netflix soared by over 2%, Amazon, Google, and Meta rose by over 1%, and Apple saw a slight increase; Intel fell more than 2%. Among them, Netflix continued to set a new historical high, and Nvidia achieved its largest daily increase since September 11th. Supermicro computers rose over 31%, marking the largest daily increase since February 22nd.
Microsoft rose 0.49%. On November 19th local time, Microsoft launched a new PC called Windows 365 Cloud Link, aimed at providing enterprise employees with a more convenient cloud based program and file access experience. At present, this new computer is open for trial in the United States, Canada, and several other countries, and is planned to be officially released in some markets at a price of $349 in April 2025.
Trump Media Technology fell over 11% at one point, closing down 8.88% at $29.87.
The panic index surged to its highest point of 17.93 since November 5th, and then fell back.
The settlement price of international crude oil futures closed slightly higher. WTI December crude oil futures closed up $0.23, or 0.33%, at $69.39 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.01 US dollars, or 0.01%, at 73.31 US dollars per barrel in January.
Bitcoin has reached a new historical high.
The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 0.75%, with most popular Chinese concept stocks falling. Futu Holdings fell more than 6%, Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 3%, Bilibili fell nearly 3%, Alibaba fell more than 2%, Zhihu rose more than 2%, and Ideal Auto and Baidu rose less than 1%.
On November 19th local time, Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman Schmid stated that although the Fed's initial interest rate cut reflects confidence in the easing of inflation, it is still uncertain to what extent interest rates will be lowered.
Schmid said, "The decision to cut interest rates reflects growing confidence that inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target, which is partly due to recent signs of a balanced labor and product markets
The next meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to be held from December 17th to 18th. According to the Federal Reserve's interest rate monitoring tool FedWatch, traders are currently betting that the probability of decision-makers cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 55.5%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates is 44.5%.
Schmid did not mention in his speech whether he supports a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December. His speech mainly focused on issues such as population structure and productivity, which may change the fundamental dynamics of inflation and thus affect monetary policy in the long run.
Regarding the current federal government spending issue, Schmid stated that a large fiscal deficit will not trigger inflation, as the Federal Reserve will do everything in its power to ensure that inflation remains at its target level of 2%.
Schmid also warned that this could mean "interest rates will remain at high levels for the long term," therefore, it is crucial for the Federal Reserve to maintain independence in formulating monetary policy.
According to brokerage firm China, renowned analyst Yardeni Research is optimistic about the future of the US stock market, but also concerned about the emergence of "excessive bullish sentiment", raising the possibility of a "1990s style collapse" from 20% to 25%.
In addition, there are differences among major institutions regarding the timing of the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Among them, Nomura Securities analysts have recently stated that they expect the Fed to pause interest rate cuts at its policy meeting in December, making it the first global brokerage firm to suggest that the Fed will pause interest rate cuts after Trump wins the election.
However, even though the valuation of the US stock market is close to historical highs, BlackRock's bond executives have emphasized a key reason why the stock price can continue to rise.
Rick Rieder, BlackRock's Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer, said at a conference, "There are no sellers
On the buyer's side, even if sustained high interest rates increase the attractiveness of money market funds, the upward movement of US stocks is still sufficient. Rieder added that the company's buyback is also supporting the stock price. He pointed out that large companies have repurchased trillions of dollars worth of their own stocks, reducing stock supply and driving up per share value. He believes that this offsets any valuation pressure, even though according to new research from Deutsche Bank, the adjusted P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index is close to its highest level in the past century.