The market dances with the wind!
Just now, there was a huge shock in the foreign exchange market. The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose to 7.0906 yuan in the Asian market in the morning, and then quickly fell back, hitting a low of 7.1106 yuan, with a intraday fluctuation of about 200 points. Afterwards, the decline of the RMB increased again and broke through the 7.13 mark. During this process, the US dollar index also experienced ups and downs, dropping to 103.34 points in early trading before quickly rising to 103.94 points.
The fluctuations in the foreign exchange market are clearly closely related to the US presidential election. As of 19:00 Eastern Time on November 5th, polling stations in six states including Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia have been closed. At 19:30 Eastern Time, polling stations in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia will be closed. According to media predictions, Trump will win Kentucky and Indiana, which were previously Republican strongholds. Harris will win Vermont.
It is worth noting that according to CNN, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Ruffin Pegg stated that 12 polling stations in the state have extended their voting hours due to bomb threats, and another 3 polling stations have extended their voting hours for "normal reasons".
According to the latest news, as of 8pm local time on November 5th, polling stations in 16 states and Washington D.C. in the United States have been closed one after another. According to the Associated Press, Republican presidential candidate Trump won Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida, and Tennessee, with a total of 95 electoral votes. Democratic candidate Harris won a total of 35 candidate votes in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Washington D.C.
Giant earthquake
This morning, the foreign exchange market experienced a huge shock. After opening, the US dollar index briefly fell to 103.34 points, but then quickly rose to 103.94 points. Due to the volatility of the US dollar index, the non US foreign exchange market is also extremely volatile. The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose to 7.0906 yuan in the Asian market in the morning, and then quickly fell back, hitting a low of 7.1106 yuan, with a intraday fluctuation of about 200 points. Citigroup's analysis of futures and options positions shows that short-term traders are bullish on the US dollar before the end of the election vote.
At the same time, the post market gains of Trump Media Technology Group's US stock market expanded to 30%. S&P 500 index futures are up 0.3%, and the yield of US treasury bond bonds of various maturities is up by 2-4 basis points. Spot gold fell in the short term, with the intraday decline widening to nearly 0.3%.
Tesla's increase has also reached a level of nearly 5%. Musk fully supports Trump in this US election.
Virtual currencies have surged across the board. Dogecoin surged over 9%, Bitcoin surged nearly 4%, and reached $70000 per coin.
Latest news on the election
From the market perspective, it is undoubtedly trading Trump's election.
As of 7:30pm Eastern Time on November 5th, which is 8:30am Beijing Time this morning, nine states in the United States have completed their election voting and entered the counting stage. According to predictions from multiple media outlets such as the Associated Press and related research institutions, as of now, Republican presidential candidate Trump has won in Kentucky and Indiana, receiving 19 electoral votes, both of which are "red states". Democratic presidential candidate Harris won three electoral votes in the blue state of Vermont. Winning the US presidential election requires obtaining at least 270 electoral votes. According to the latest display on the Reuters website, West Virginia has also been taken by Trump, and this state is also a stronghold of the Republican Party.
Starting from 6:00 AM Eastern Time on November 5th (7:00 PM Beijing Time on November 5th), polling stations in most states from east to west in the United States will gradually open and remain open until the evening of the 5th. After the voting began, CNN reported that multiple districts in North Carolina and the Atlanta area of Georgia were seeking to extend voting hours due to "obvious technical issues" or unreliable bomb threats.
Edison Research's national exit poll data shows that nearly three-quarters of voters believe that American democracy is under threat in Tuesday's presidential election, reflecting deep anxiety in the United States after the fierce election battle between Democrat Harris and Republican Trump.
The data shows that democracy and economy are the most concerned issues for voters so far, followed by abortion and immigration issues. According to polls, 73% of voters believe that democracy is in jeopardy, while only 25% of voters believe that democracy is safe. These data only reflect the views of a small portion of the tens of millions of voters who voted before and on election day, and this preliminary result may change as the number of people surveyed increases that evening.
However, some experts suggest that due to vote counting rules and quirks in several key states, early voting results in battleground states in the United States may not be able to predict well whether Democratic candidate Harris or Republican opponent Trump will win. In the 2020 election, some states experienced a "red phantom" where Trump was in the lead on election night, and as more Democratic voters' preferred mail in ballots were counted, Democrat Biden experienced a "blue shift" and surpassed Trump.