The China Financial Research Report pointed out that the main challenge for the global macro economy in 2024 is how to cope with high US dollar interest rates. In terms of prediction, there are three scenario assumptions for the US economy in 2024:
1) Benchmark scenario (60%): labor market cooling but not deteriorating, real estate investment stabilizing, manufacturing restocking, and a slight slowdown in overall economic demand and inflation. In 2024, GDP growth was 1.6%, with a trend of high before low, and CPI inflation in Q4 was around 3.0%.
2) Stagflation (25%): Geopolitical conflicts are heating up, global energy prices remain high, overall economic demand is significantly suppressed, inflation remains high, GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024, and CPI inflation in Q4 is still 4.0%.
3) Recession (15%): Excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve has led to financial risk exposure, a significant drop in asset prices, a contraction in economic demand, and a sharp drop in inflationary pressure. In 2024, GDP growth was 0%, while in Q4, CPI inflation decreased to 2.0%.