The drastic changes in the situation in the Middle East have caused a huge shock in international oil prices! On October 28th, international oil prices plummeted sharply during trading, with both US and Brent crude oil falling by over 6%.
Market analysis suggests that the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly, and the threat to oil facilities in oil producing countries may decrease. The easing of panic is the main reason for the sudden decline in oil prices due to the interruption of the continuous upward trend.
International oil prices suddenly plummet sharply
International oil prices have plummeted across the board. According to data, as of the end of the day in New York, the main contracts for NYMEX crude oil and ICE Brent crude futures have both fallen by more than 5%. The December US oil contract fell 5.25% to $68.01 per barrel. The January 2025 contract for Brent crude oil fell 5.33% to $71.60 per barrel.
Early this morning, US natural gas futures fell nearly 9.00%, closing down 8.25%.
Middle East, big news! Strike against non oil and nuclear facilities
Since Iran launched an attack on Israel in October, the world has been concerned about the situation in the Middle East and the situation of oil producing countries, and international oil prices have continued to rise.
Last week, the cumulative increase in international oil prices exceeded 4%, due to concerns that Israel's upcoming retaliatory attacks would target Iran's oil and nuclear facilities and raise concerns about a full-scale war in the Middle East.
According to the Economic Reference News, market analysts suggest that geopolitical risks in the Middle East may reduce the threat to oil facilities in oil producing countries, and the easing of market panic is the main reason for the sudden decline in oil prices due to the interruption of the continuous upward trend. On October 28th, Brent crude oil futures in Asia fell 5% in early trading due to news of Israel's latest strike on Iran and avoiding oil facilities.
On the early morning of the 26th local time, the spokesperson of the Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement stating that the Israeli military is carrying out precise strikes on Iranian military targets in response to Iran's recent missile attacks on Israel. According to CCTV News citing Israeli media reports, Israel's strike against Iran has ended.
On the news front, according to the latest report from CCTV News, on October 28th local time, the ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip in Doha, the capital of Qatar, were suspended. The relevant parties discussed several agreement proposals put forward by the mediator during the two-day talks and made progress.
Multiple investment banks collectively lowered their prices
Due to signs of weak demand and sufficient supply putting pressure on the crude oil market, Wall Street's view on oil prices has become more pessimistic.
On the evening of October 28th, Citigroup significantly lowered its 12-month Brent oil price forecast from $72 per barrel to $60 per barrel, as the risk premium driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually subsided.
In September, Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil prices twice within a month. Analysts currently predict that the average Brent crude oil price in the fourth quarter of this year will reach $75 per barrel, $5 lower than the forecast price of $80 per barrel at the end of August.
JPMorgan Chase also lowered its fourth quarter price forecast from $85 to $80 in September, citing "significantly poor oil price performance" in August. In August, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast by $5 per barrel to $70 to $85 per barrel.
The signs of economic crisis in the United States and Europe are becoming increasingly evident, and the end of the summer driving season has also had an impact on oil prices. The low oil prices have also led to a sharp drop in gasoline prices in the United States. At least one analyst predicts that by the end of this year, the average gasoline price in the United States will fall to $3.
It is worth noting that recently, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for the next two years.
OPEC announced on October 14th that it has lowered its forecast for global demand growth in 2024 to 1.93 million barrels per day, a decrease from last month's expectation of 2.03 million barrels per day. This is the third consecutive time OPEC has lowered its forecast. Meanwhile, OPEC has also lowered its forecast for 2025, expecting global demand growth to reach 1.64 million barrels per day, lower than the previous 1.74 million barrels per day.
According to brokerage firm China, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, warns that concerns about rising international oil prices are not yet over. He said in a report, "The problem with oil is that the direct threat of supply disruption has been put aside. From a broader perspective, if you think this measure will end the current situation in the Middle East, I don't think so... I think Iran will respond in some way