As a leader in the field of AI chips, Nvidia is undoubtedly the focus of global funds, and its stock price hit a new historical high last week. Over the past weekend, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi published two consecutive articles forecasting the order volume of Nvidia's Blackwell GB200 chip.
Guo Mingchi stated that the shipment volume of Blackwell GB200 chips in the fourth quarter will be between 150000 and 200000 pieces, and the shipment volume in the first quarter of next year will significantly increase by 200% to 250%, reaching 500000 to 550000 pieces. Guo Mingchi also stated that the order volume of Microsoft, the largest customer of GB200, will surge by 3 to 4 times in the fourth quarter, exceeding the total of all other cloud service providers. It is recommended to pay attention to Blackwell's semiconductor supply chain and Microsoft GB200 supply chain.
Looking ahead to this week, apart from Nvidia, Tesla, one of the "Big Seven" in the US stock market, will release its financial report after market hours on October 23rd Eastern Time, which will also attract a large number of investors' attention. Previously, Musk's Robotaxi answer sheet was not satisfactory to the market, leading to a significant drop in its stock price. Looking ahead to the third quarter report, investors will continue to focus on automotive revenue, the impact of price reductions on profit margins, and the situation of energy storage business. In addition, the progress and potential revenue contribution of the Robotaxi project, as well as the delivery volume outlook for the next two years, will also become key factors in market response.
Guo Mingchi: Microsoft's GB200 order volume surged 3-4 times in the fourth quarter
According to Guo Mingchi, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, the latest industry chain order information for the Nvidia Blackwell GB200 chip shows that Microsoft is currently the world's largest GB200 customer, with order volume surging 3-4 times in the fourth quarter of this year, exceeding the total order volume of all other cloud service providers.
Guo Mingchi stated in his latest report that the expansion of production capacity for Nvidia's Blackwell chips is expected to commence in early Q4 2024. Considering the yield rate and testing efficiency, it is expected that the shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be between 150000 and 200000 pieces, and the shipment volume in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to significantly increase by 200% to 250%, reaching 500000 to 550000 pieces.
This means that Nvidia may only need a few quarters to achieve its sales target of one million units. Currently, Microsoft is the most active customer in purchasing the Blackwell GB200. In addition to the GB200 NVL36 order originally scheduled for testing in Q4 2024, Microsoft recently plans to obtain customized GB200 NVL72 units before the NVIDIA DGX GB200 NVL72 (also known as the reference design) enters mass production (mid-2025).
Microsoft's order volume for Blackwell GB200 in the fourth quarter of 2024 has surged from 300 to 500 cabinets (mainly NVL36) to approximately 1400 to 1500 cabinets, of which approximately 70% are NVL72, with the highest growth rate reaching 400%. Its subsequent orders will mainly focus on NVL72.
According to Guo Mingchi's updated industrial chain order information, Microsoft has recently discussed with key component suppliers about capacity expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024 (approximately 1.5 to 2 times or more than the original capacity) and is preparing to stock up in advance.
Other cloud service providers' orders include Amazon's GB200 NVL36 orders for 300-400 cabinets in Q4 2024, as well as Meta's focus on Ariel architecture rather than Bianca, both of which have significantly lower order volumes than Microsoft.
Bank of America: Buying Nvidia is a 'once-in-a-generation opportunity'
At the market level, Nvidia's stock price continues to soar, reaching a new historical high last week with a cumulative increase of 178.75% for the year. The latest total market value has climbed to $3.39 trillion.
Despite the astonishing increase, several Wall Street institutions remain very optimistic about Nvidia's outlook. Among them, Bank of America analysts Vivek Arya, Duksan Jang, and others stated that buying Nvidia is a "once-in-a-generation opportunity", and Nvidia's current valuation is still attractive because its PEG index (price to earnings ratio/year-on-year compound growth rate of earnings per share) for 2025 is only 0.6 times, far below the average of 1.9 times for other companies in the "Big Seven" of US technology stocks.
Bank of America expects Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) to continue rising by 13% to 20% for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, and has raised Nvidia's target price to $190. It is expected that by 2027, Nvidia's earnings per share will increase by more than 5 times to $5.67, and the price to earnings ratio will drop to a milder 24 times.
In terms of investment opportunities, Guo Mingchi believes that in addition to Blackwell's semiconductor supply chain, such as TSMC, Kyogen Electric, and equipment manufacturers, the Microsoft GB200 supply chain is worth paying attention to in the near future, as its key components and assembly suppliers can benefit from strong demand and lead other CSP supply chains in bulk shipments.
Besides Nvidia, one of the most representative GB200 component stocks in the US stock market is Vertiv, whose stock price has recently reached a historic high.
The earnings season is reaching its peak, and Tesla's performance is about to be released this week.
Looking ahead to this week, many important companies in the US stock market will disclose their financial reports. Among them, the most important is undoubtedly Tesla, one of the "Big Seven" in the US stock market. The company will release its financial report after market hours on October 23 Eastern Time, and institutions expect it to achieve revenue of $25.674 billion in the third quarter of 2024, an increase of 9.95% year-on-year; Expected earnings per share of $0.5, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%.
Previously, Musk's Robotaxi answer sheet was not satisfactory to the market, leading to a significant drop in its stock price. Looking ahead to the third quarter report, investors will continue to focus on automotive revenue, the impact of price reductions on profit margins, and the situation of energy storage business. In addition, the progress and potential revenue contribution of the Robotaxi project, as well as the delivery volume outlook for the next two years, will also become key factors in market response.
In addition to Tesla, companies such as General Motors, New Oriental, Coca Cola, and American Airlines in the US stock market will gradually release their rankings, which is worth investors' attention.
In terms of macroeconomics, the economic data for the United States this week was relatively light, with the most important being the PMI data released on Thursday and the number of initial jobless claims. On Thursday of this week, the Federal Reserve will also release a heavyweight brown book. At the same time, many Federal Reserve policy makers will also give speeches, which may increase market volatility.
Wall Street analysts believe that although the first phase of interest rate cuts this year seems more certain, the second phase will be more cautious. As the US presidential election enters the decisive stage, any statements made by Federal Reserve officials are worth paying attention to.
Author: Wang Youruo
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