JPMorgan Chase increases its holdings in Alibaba.
On the evening of October 18th, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that JPMorgan Chase&Co. increased its stake in Alibaba SW (09988) by approximately 56.36 million shares on October 14th, with an average price of HKD 105.0870 and an investment of approximately HKD 5.922 billion (approximately RMB 5.4 billion). After the increase in holdings, the number of shares held was 1.551 billion, and the shareholding ratio increased from 7.80% to 8.09%. Among the increased holdings, there are approximately 721 million short positions, accounting for 3.76% of the total holdings, and approximately 429 million shares available for lending, accounting for 2.24%.
Previously, Alibaba had been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Alibaba completed its dual major listings on the New York Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 28th. On September 9th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice on the adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect targets under the Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong Stock Connect. The adjustment information shows that 33 stocks including Alibaba (09988. HK) have been transferred, which means that southbound funds will be able to purchase Alibaba and other stocks through the Hong Kong Stock Connect. On October 14th, Hang Seng Index Company announced that Alibaba will be included in the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Index and other indices after the market closes on October 25th, 2024 (Friday), as Alibaba has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect and meets the requirements of the relevant index's quick inclusion rules. This will take effect on October 28th, 2024 (Monday).
Data shows that since Alibaba's second listing in Hong Kong in 2019, most of its publicly traded shares have been transferred to Hong Kong. In terms of market value and trading volume, Alibaba has consistently ranked among the top three Hong Kong stocks. The Da Mo Research Report points out that in the long run, the proportion of southbound capital holdings may remain stable at over 10%. Goldman Sachs research report predicts that southbound funds will bring potential capital inflows of $15 billion to $16 billion to Alibaba.
On October 10th, a research report released by JPMorgan showed that it is expected that Alibaba's Q2 2025 financial report revenue will increase by about 6% to 239.4 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA of about 40.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. JPMorgan expects Taobao Group's GMV to increase by 5% year-on-year, and CMR (customer management fees) to increase by 2% year-on-year. It is expected that CMR growth in the December quarter will be on par with GMV growth. At the investment level, Alibaba has increased its investment in user experience platforms such as 88VIP, which is expected to bring about a rapid increase in the number of 88VIPs and enhance the consumer stickiness of its core user group.
Morgan Stanley believes that investing in user experience and pricing power to maintain a stable GMV share remains the highest priority short-term goal for Taobao and Tmall. It is recommended to focus on the company's GMV share and the monetization trend in the December quarter in the short term.
JPMorgan's research report also pointed out that platform interconnectivity is expected to bring 20% -30% incremental users to Taobao, with a total scale of 200 million -300 million users. It reiterated Alibaba's (BABA) overweight rating and raised the target price to $125.
In September of this year, Taotian Group adjusted its platform rules to support WeChat Pay and achieve interconnectivity.
The report released by QuestMobile shows that the total scale of China's mobile Internet network has reached 1.243 billion, and Tencent and Alibaba rank the top two in the total number of users to be reused, with 1.238 billion and 1.169 billion respectively. The report shows that in the month when Taobao announced support for WeChat Pay, the number of newly installed users on the app increased by 55% year-on-year, reaching the highest value in the past four years; Based on the compound growth rate of the past 6 years, it is expected that Taobao's monthly active users will increase by 82.17 million next year, and it is expected to surpass 1 billion for the first time. The total monthly active user scale will also surpass 1 billion for the first time.
While JPMorgan Chase increases its holdings, SoftBank's holdings in Alibaba are further decreasing.
On October 16th, according to documents from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, SoftBank Group (9984. T)'s holdings in Alibaba (NYSE: BABA, 09988. HK) decreased to 10.93%. On August 28th, SoftBank's holding ratio was still 12.45%. In Alibaba's 2024 annual report disclosed in May this year, SoftBank's holding ratio was 14.2%.
According to reports citing data calculated by Morgan Stanley, SoftBank Group, founded by Masayoshi Son, has reduced its stake in Alibaba through forward contracts, with its shareholding ratio dropping from around 7% in December 2022 to around 2% in March last year, and then to less than 0.5% in May last year.
It is reported that forward contracts are a type of derivative in which both parties agree to buy or sell a certain amount of a financial asset at a certain price at a certain future time. The characteristic of this forward contract is that it can quietly complete the sale plan without affecting Alibaba's stock price. The first reduction sale in 2016 was only confirmed on the last day of delivery after three years. Meanwhile, during the contract period, the stock repurchase right can still be retained.
On August 15th, Alibaba released its first quarter financial report for the fiscal year 2025 (as of June 30th, 2024), with revenue of RMB 243.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and an estimated RMB 249.85 billion; Adjusted EBITA (a non GAAP financial indicator) decreased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 45.035 billion, in line with expectations.