On the morning of the 11th Beijing time, after months of delay, Tesla's "Robotaxi Day" event was finally officially held.
Although Musk was almost an hour late and his speech lasted less than 30 minutes, his introductions of the Robotaixi prototype car "Cybercab", the autonomous bus "Robovan", and the new generation Optimus robot all caused cheers from the audience.
However, under bursts of cheers, Musk's real surprise was limited: he neither provided technical details about the back of the driverless taxi, nor specifically discussed the future commercialization path of autonomous vehicle; The low-cost model Model 2, which Wall Street had been eagerly anticipating, did not make its debut.
As of press time, Tesla's stock price fell 5.58% before the US stock market opened, clearly indicating market disappointment.
Key points of Tesla's press conference:
1. Autonomous taxi Cybercab: a two door, two seater car without steering wheel and pedals, equipped with induction charging, expected to cost less than $30000 and begin production in 2026, with transportation costs of approximately 20 cents per mile;
2. Autonomous box truck Robovan: can accommodate up to 20 people and can also be used for cargo transportation, with a travel cost of about 10-15 cents per mile;
3. Autonomous driving technology: Tesla is expected to launch fully autonomous driving (FSD) capabilities for Model 3 and Model y in Texas and California next year;
4. Optimus robot: In the case of large-scale production, the cost of Optimus will be between $20000 and $30000. From the on-site performance of Optimus robots, it can be seen that their flexibility in movement has greatly improved compared to previous versions.
Will Musk's autonomous driving 'big cake' fail again?
For the market, Tesla's innovation in autonomous driving technology is definitely the most impactful one. However, despite Musk's claim that autonomous driving services using his self driving software may be launched in Texas and California from next year, the market can no longer fully afford the "big cake" he has drawn.
After all, Musk's previous commitments in this area have repeatedly disappointed the market: as early as 2017, he promised to achieve fully autonomous driving from Los Angeles to New York by the end of that year - but apparently failed. In 2019, he predicted that there would be one million autonomous taxis on the road by 2020- this also became empty talk.
Under the influence of multiple 'wolf strikes', many Wall Street analysts can no longer fully trust Musk's promises.
Moreover, Tesla's autonomous driving technology is different from other peers - Tesla only uses cameras and artificial intelligence to understand the surrounding environment of the vehicle, rather than using LiDAR and high-definition maps like Waymo or Baidu, which means that the safety of its autonomous driving technology may face more questions.
Therefore, even after Musk's promise, many Wall Street analysts still believe that Tesla will need several more years to launch autonomous taxis due to regulatory barriers and doubts about the safety of its autonomous driving technology.
Analysts at Jefferies stated that Musk did not provide "verifiable evidence" of progress in Tesla's autonomous driving technology, which "makes it difficult for us to assess the feasibility of Musk's goals outlined at the conference, as there is currently no precedent for using visual alone to achieve higher levels of autonomous driving.
In addition, in terms of business model, although Musk briefly mentioned that Robotaxi will open up a new business model - managing a very large fleet by one person, he briefly touched on many details.
Musk has not answered many complex real-world questions, such as "How to deal with regulatory barriers?" and "How to maintain Cybercab if it malfunctions on the road.
Is Model 2 still missing?
For many investors, the biggest mistake of this press conference was Musk's failure to launch a more affordable electric car (the rumored Model 2, priced at $25000) to revive his aging product portfolio.
CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson expressed disappointment with the lack of clarity in Tesla's recent product roadmap. We believe that this event has little effect on changing the opaque mid-term profit outlook, "he said.
However, there have been rumors that the Cybercab may share the same chassis with new passenger models, which means that the official debut of Tesla Model 2 may not be too late after the Cybercab's debut.
However, the well-known automotive technology news website Electrek also mentioned that Cybercab has an obvious flaw: it only has two seats. This means that Cybercal finds it difficult to accommodate a family of three or multiple passengers. Moreover, if a large number of such two seater cars are put on the streets in the future, it may only exacerbate the problem of road congestion.
Surprise Robovan: Unfortunately, the details are insufficient
Compared to the rumors surrounding Cybercab before the event, there were not many speculations about Robovan from the outside world. Therefore, for many investors, Musk's Robovan showcased at the event was a pleasant surprise.
This model is larger in size than the cybercab, with hidden wheels and no real windshield. Its exterior design is obviously inspired by the sci-fi movie "Blade Runner", adopting an integrated design with a wide light strip on the front facade and transparent glass on both sides of the roof.
Musk stated that Robovan can carry both passengers and cargo, with a capacity to carry up to 20 people (although only 14 seats appear from the picture) or a large amount of cargo, which can be used for commercial or personal purposes.
Unfortunately, Musk has not announced the production date and price of Robovan.
In addition, compared to Cybercabins, Tesla's display of Robovan's features seems to be limited: Robovan only briefly demonstrated its driving and passenger capacity during its debut, and during the on-site experience phase of the second half of the press conference, Tesla did not provide a test ride experience for Robovan - on-site audiences could only experience riding Cybercabins and the Model 3 and Model Y equipped with autonomous driving functions.
Overall, although Musk's "pancake show" had some surprises, the details were still insufficient. As Dennis Dick, a stock trader at Triple D Trading, stated:
Everything looks great, but there aren't many details about the timeline. As a shareholder, I'm very disappointed. I think the market wants a clearer timeline. I don't think (Musk) said too much about anything... He didn't provide too much information