Blue Whale News, October 11th - Tesla CEO Elon Musk arrived late in his Cybercab self driving taxi, almost an hour later than the originally scheduled press conference.
On the morning of October 11th Beijing time, the "We, Robot" launch event, which Musk called "going down in history," opened with great attention. In less than half an hour, Tesla's Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) named Cybercab and Robovan (autonomous van) were unveiled one after another. At the same time, Musk also announced the progress of Optimus robots.
At this press conference, Cybercab held an absolute C-position. Musk revealed that the vehicle cost of Cybercab should be less than $30000, which allows Tesla to open up new business models. With such a travel platform, fleet management will be very efficient. This future is very bright, and we have been striving to achieve fully autonomous driving
Is Cybercab's' pie 'drawing two years from now?
After a two month delay in the press conference, Tesla's self driving taxi "arrived late but late".
At the "We, Robot" launch event, Tesla showcased multiple Tesla developed Cybercabs. At the opening show, Musk took one of the Cybercabs for a demonstration of autonomous driving around the field. According to his introduction, these vehicles do not have traditional steering wheels and pedals and rely entirely on Tesla's FSD (Fully Autonomous Driving Capability) software.
Technically, the vehicle will rely on AI and vision systems to operate without the need for very expensive equipment. "The Model 3 and Model Y we have manufactured today can achieve FSD without supervision, which also means that our vehicle production costs are actually very low It is reported that the vehicle cost of Cybercab should be less than 30000 US dollars (approximately 212300 yuan).
So, how does Cybercab make money? According to Musk's vision, he hopes to operate a Tesla autonomous taxi fleet called Cybercabins, where passengers can hail a ride through an application. Individual Tesla owners can also earn money on the app by listing their vehicles as robot taxis.
Meanwhile, Musk is optimistic about the production time of Cybercab. At the time point, it is expected that such products will be rolled out on a large scale before 2026 or 2027.
In addition to Robotaxi, Musk also showcased the autonomous box car Robovan at the press conference, which can carry 20 people and transport goods without a steering wheel or pedals, completely autonomous. Several mass-produced Optimus robots were also exhibited on site. Musk stated that in the future, the cost of producing Optimus on a scale will be between $20000 and $30000.
Faced with multiple challenges, analysts say cautious approach
Despite Musk's optimistic attitude towards the production of Cybercab, some in the industry have poured cold water on it.
Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi recently stated that supply chain surveys show that Tesla Robotaxi is expected to enter mass production in the first quarter of 2027. He believes that Tesla already has the hardware design and production capabilities required to manufacture Robotaxi, but the production time means that FSD may not reach L4 level until after 2026.
According to a previous report by The Pinnacle Gazette website in the United States, some analysts have warned to be cautious about this press conference, as Tesla has experienced delays in product releases in the past, and there is limited actual information about Robotaxi's operational capabilities and safety features, lacking substantial technical data. This has raised doubts among potential customers and investors about its feasibility, especially considering the complex regulatory standards for autonomous vehicles.
Tesla previously mentioned in a shareholder letter that the launch time of Robotaxi will depend on technological advancements and regulatory approvals.
The Cybercab, which is designed ahead of schedule and relies entirely on FSD, first faces regulatory challenges.
In terms of regulation, we hope to further track relevant developments. We will first communicate with regulatory agencies in the United States, and we will also follow up outside the United States, "Musk said at the press conference. Previously, it was stated that if companies have a large amount of data, such as billions of miles of driving data, which indicates that in the future, autonomous driving will be safer than humans, then regulatory agencies will find it difficult to hinder the development of Robotaxi.
Technologically, Musk stated that Tesla FSD will shift from supervised mode to unsupervised autonomous driving, where passengers will be automatically transported to their destination by the vehicle.
Regarding this, Zhang Ning, Vice President of Xiaoma Zhixing and Head of Robotaxi's Autonomous Driving Travel Business, told Blue Whale News that Tesla FSD performs well in assisted driving (L2), but there is still a big gap in terms of technology and safety indicators required for autonomous driving (L4). In its view, Tesla's use of pure visual sensors and relatively low map dependence has resulted in a good assisted driving experience for FSD in North America and many other regions. However, some facts about FSD may not be completely consistent with the public perception.
According to a review report cited by third-party testing agency AMCI Testing, Tesla's latest FSD v12.5 version requires human intervention on average every 13 miles (approximately 21 kilometers). We also conducted road tests in the relatively busy Bay Area cities in the United States, and the test results showed that on average, we have to take over every less than 10 kilometers
For non motorized vehicle objects, pure visual solutions have inherent flaws in detection, especially in domestic urban road scenes with a high number of pedestrians and bicycles. If objects on the road cannot be seen, the autonomous driving mode will not slow down or avoid them in a timely manner, resulting in safety hazards, "Zhang Ning told Blue Whale News.
The competition in the Robotaxi track is intensifying
With the release of Cybercab, the trillion dollar Robotaxi race welcomes another member.
According to Frost& Sullivan predicts that Robotaxi will achieve large-scale commercialization around 2026. It is expected that by 2030, the market size of Robotaxi in China and globally will reach 488.8 billion yuan and 834.9 billion yuan respectively, with CAGR of 248%/239% from 2024 to 2030. By 2035, it will reach 1.6 trillion yuan and 3.2 trillion yuan respectively, with CAGR of 27.4%/31% from 2030 to 2035.
Haitong Securities believes that Tesla's entry will drive significant changes in the shared mobility industry, and 2025 may become the first year of global Robotaxi commercialization.
Of course, Tesla Cybercab, which was the first to land in the North American market, may face significant market competition. According to Reuters, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, is the only company in the United States that operates unmanned Robotaxis and charges fees. General Motors' Cruise has reintroduced the Robotaxi with a safety driver after an accident last year. Amazon's Zoox is also actively expanding its testing range for autonomous taxis without steering wheels and pedals.
There is currently no timetable for Tesla Cybercab to enter the Chinese market. In terms of FSD, Musk previously stated that Tesla will request approval from regulatory agencies in Europe, China, and other countries for Tesla's FSD (fully autonomous driving capability) supervised version in the V12.5 or possibly V12.6 version. He believes that Tesla may receive approval before the end of this year.
Before Tesla, including Robotaxicompanies such as Apollo Go and Xiaoma Zhixing under Baidu, as well as auto companies such as Xiaopeng Auto and GAC, are all laying out this track.
On the evening of October 10th, GAC Group announced that it had approved the proposal on strategic investment in Xiaoma Zhixing. To deepen business collaboration and promote the development of the company in the field of autonomous driving, it is agreed that the wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, Guangzhou Automobile Capital Co., Ltd., will invest 27 million US dollars in Xiaoma Zhixing.
The technology trend for making Robotaxi is clear, and in the past few months, the end-to-end approach has accelerated the iteration of Xiaopeng's intelligent driving. The combination of end-to-end and large models has led everyone to the clear trend of L4 autonomous driving. "On the evening of the 10th, Xiaopeng Motors Chairman He Xiaopeng announced that he plans to officially launch Robotaxi in 2026, and achieving a safe and efficient manned experience is the first step in the development of Robotaxi capabilities.
Unlike Tesla, Xiaopeng Motors focuses on the Robotaxi product itself, does not intervene in operations, and focuses on how to improve the parking and driving capabilities of Robotaxi scenarios. As the L4 intelligent driving capability gradually matures and policies and regulations continue to improve, the cockpit of Robotaxi can be designed for any scenario
Robotaxi, as a concrete application of artificial intelligence, has become a new highland of technological competition between China and the United States. In the next 3-5 years, it will bring about changes in the global travel market. China's autonomous driving needs to be standardized, scaled up, and commercialized first, which is urgent, "Zhang Ning told Blue Whale News.