The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges will conduct a full network test tomorrow.
Under a series of heavyweight policy releases, the A-share market rebounded strongly, with a four-day consecutive surge in volume from September 24th to 27th. On September 30th, the last trading day before the holiday, A-shares continued to surge in volume, with a total trading volume of over 2.6 trillion yuan throughout the day.
The booming stock market has also put higher demands on the trading system. Previously, the trading system of the Shanghai Stock Exchange experienced a "crash" during the "explosive order" market on the morning of September 27th. After the test on September 29th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange will conduct another full network test on October 7th.
According to CCTV Finance, the Shanghai Stock Exchange will organize a system startup connectivity test on October 7th to provide a connectivity testing environment for relevant institutions to verify their startup. Meanwhile, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will also conduct relevant tests on the same day. The reporter learned from the Shanghai Stock Exchange that this test is a routine test after holidays, but it is particularly important in the current situation where the daily trading volume exceeds 2.5 trillion yuan.
It is understood that the participating units include Shanghai Stock Exchange Technology Company, Shanghai Stock Exchange Information Company, relevant core institutions, and financial institutions such as securities firms. The securities accounts, trading units, designated trades, etc. used in the test are based on the production environment data after the market closes on September 30th, and will simulate one trading day. At the same time, there is also news that as market trading volume continues to increase, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is also studying equipment expansion, and specific plans are also under discussion.
On September 30th, due to the hot A-share market and a surge in trading volume, some brokerage apps experienced partial login and slow trading in the morning. Multiple securities firms have provided feedback that they have activated backup sites for trading in an emergency, ensuring that the resources and performance of the backup sites can meet current needs. The reporter has called the relevant securities firm's customer service several times, but they are all busy.
Hong Kong stock market surges during holidays
From October 2nd to October 4th, the Hong Kong stock market continued to soar, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 7.59% and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 10%.
Since September 11th, the Hang Seng Index has rebounded within a range of over 28%, with a year-on-year increase of 33.37%. It is worth noting that after a recent consecutive surge, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market this year ranks first among major global indices, ahead of the US and Japanese stocks. Several industry insiders have stated that the continuous surge in the Hong Kong stock market during the National Day holiday may boost the post holiday trend of the A-share market. In addition, active equity funds and Hong Kong themed funds with a significant allocation of Hong Kong stocks will benefit from the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market during the National Day Golden Week, and their net asset value may experience a significant rebound, potentially leading the performance rankings.
Chinese concept stocks listed on the US stock market also continue to be strong, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing up 3.05% on Friday. If we count from the day when A-shares led the explosion of Chinese assets on September 24th, the index has surged 39% in the past two weeks, up 2256 points.
Institution: Nearly 300 billion yuan may flow into Chinese funded stocks in the future
On October 5th, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks continued to rise sharply during the holiday period, and passive foreign investment accelerated its inflow, but the proportion of stock size was not large; There is a certain degree of overdraft in trading funds, and the turnover of active foreign capital is inflow, but the scale is not significant yet. The subsequent trend of active foreign capital is worth paying attention to, but its continued inflow requires more policies and more optimistic expectations to drive. Specifically, active foreign capital turnover is inflow, but the scale is not yet significant. Active foreign investment accounts for 80%, much larger than passive funds, making it more important and representative of long-term institutional investors. This week, overseas active funds converted into inflows of $190 million into A-shares, and $120 million into Hong Kong stocks and ADRs. Although the scale is not large, it is the first time since the end of June 2023 that it has turned into net inflows after 65 consecutive weeks of outflows. Regionally, the main focus is on investing in funds in China and the Asian region, while funds investing in emerging markets and the global market have not yet flowed in. This is related to our speculation that some active funds are forced to reduce their low allocation to prevent losing too much due to the continued surge in the market. The follow-up trend of active foreign investment is worth paying attention to, but its continued inflow requires more policies and more optimistic expectations to drive.
As of the end of August, global active funds allocated 5% of Chinese stocks (the high point at the beginning of 2021 was 14.6%), with a 1 percentage point underallocation. We estimate that if we switch from low-end configuration to standard configuration, it will result in an inflow of nearly 40 billion US dollars (approximately 280 billion yuan), which is equivalent to the total outflow since March 2023.
Dai Kang, Chief Asset Research Officer of Guangfa Securities Development Research Center, believes that Hong Kong stocks are in the second stage of a bull market, which is the stage of value reassessment; In the third stage, we need to wait for the continuous improvement of fundamentals and observe, including the unclear market situation of profit realization. The A-share market has experienced its strongest rebound since the bear market. On the one hand, domestic policies have cleverly utilized the window of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to last for the next two years. On the other hand, the shift in policy intensity has exceeded market expectations. Dai Kang believes that the direction of this round of prescriptions is correct, similar to a person who caught a cold and used to take medicine, but now they have intravenous drip.
Dai Kang suggested that in the current bull market atmosphere, funds should be allocated into two parts: stable and highly elastic assets. In terms of high elasticity assets, Chinese assets and pan Southeast Asian assets are advantageous in terms of debt cycle and population structure, which is worth paying attention to. In the Hong Kong stock market, a strategy of buying low and selling high is adopted, while the A-share market may have a more bullish sentiment, requiring attention to trading volume and market sentiment evolution. In addition, the AI industry chain and the field of technological innovation are also highly flexible asset choices. At the beginning of a bull market, the first elastic asset to erupt was the brokerage sector; But in the future, it may shift towards more imaginative sectors such as technology and innovation. In asset allocation, it is necessary to closely monitor market trends and evolution in order to obtain better investment opportunities.
By industry, consumer services, home appliances, non bank finance, electronics, petroleum and petrochemicals, military industry, building materials, and real estate have the highest growth rates, mainly concentrated in areas such as optional consumption, hard technology, and real estate chain.
The strategy team of Minsheng Securities released a report stating that both individual and institutional investment sentiment have significantly increased, and this combination of investor sentiment suggests that the market may continue to be on the rise. It is worth noting that institutional investment sentiment is approaching its highest point since 2018, second only to October 2018. Overall, the downward spiral of risk appetite among A-share investors has been reversed. Institutional investors and individual investors are currently in a collaborative stage, and institutional sentiment may become a variable in the future market due to limited upward potential. Industry investment sentiment indicators show that most sectors have clear upward signals at various stages. Specifically, sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, non silver, real estate, and communications may enter a divergent stage of upward trend, while other sectors are still in an upward trend. The weighted shareholder account index shows that investors have recently flocked more to consumer services, food and beverage, non bank, real estate, media and other sectors.