On Tuesday (October 1st), the US job vacancies announced in the morning session unexpectedly rebounded, and there was no sign of a rebound in the manufacturing PMI, which hit the US stock market trend at the same time as the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job vacancies on the last working day of August reached 8.04 million, the highest level since June. The market was originally expected to decline to 7.655 million people, but the July data was revised up from 7.673 million to 7.711 million.
Number of job vacancies in the United States
The breakdown shows that the number of job vacancies in the construction industry has increased the most since 2009, and the number of state and local government departments has also increased. The recruitment rate has dropped to 3.3%, which is the lowest level since 2013, excluding the epidemic period. The retail trade, transportation, and warehousing industries have experienced the largest decline.
Although the layoff rate remains low, the labor market situation is mixed. At present, the ratio of unemployment to job vacancies closely monitored by the Federal Reserve remains at a three-year low of around 1.1:1, and reached its peak of 2:1 in 2022.
At the same time, data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in the United States showed that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry recorded 47.2 in September, consistent with the August reading, and the market originally believed it could rebound to 47.5.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
PMI is a "barometer" that measures the development status of the industry and reflects future economic trends, compiled through monthly surveys of purchasing managers. The index usually takes 50 as the critical point, and above 50, it indicates that a certain field is in an expanding state; If it is below 50, it indicates that the field is in a state of decline.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for the sixth consecutive month, indicating that economic activity in the manufacturing sector has cooled down for five consecutive months. Looking further ahead, in the past 23 months, PMI has been below 50 in 22 of them, with the only time recorded being 50.3 in March of this year.
In the sub item data, the decline rate of orders and output indicators has slowed down compared to last month, but it is still in the contraction range. The order volume has shrunk for the sixth consecutive month, leading to production constraints and lowering the employment index.
Timothy Fiore, Chairman of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, wrote, "Demand remains sluggish because businesses are unwilling to invest in capital and inventory, and the deeper reason is the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and elections
Fiore also mentioned that the strike that began at Boeing in September has exacerbated the already sluggish aerospace and transportation equipment industry. He added that the October report will also be negatively affected by production disruptions caused by Hurricane Helena and potential strikes at US ports.
But Fiore believes that the strike may not last long.