In 2008, the world's first Tesla car was delivered, and over the following decade, Tesla gradually became the benchmark for electric vehicle brands.
But an important piece of the Tesla car revolution - the Robotaxi business - has only heard the thunder and not seen the rain for many years. After experiencing multiple delays, Musk confirmed a clearer schedule at the earnings conference in July this year, and Tesla will hold the Robotaxi unveiling event on October 10th. On September 26th, Tesla officially released a teaser poster for the event.
Someone posted that this will be Tesla's "most important moment" since the launch of Model 3, to which Musk responded positively: yes.
It is worth noting that Tesla will launch a new model specifically designed for autonomous driving, rather than putting existing or modified Tesla cars into the taxi business. Musk has temporarily named the Robotaxi model "Cybercab". The public is attempting to salvage more details from Musk's' spoilers', and the information currently available is——
Cybercab may not be equipped with a steering wheel and pedals, relying entirely on Tesla's Fully Autonomous Driving (FSD) software; The manufacturing cost of bicycles will be very low, and the cost of a single ride may be similar to that of a bus fare; It will be produced at a super factory in Texas and will adopt a new "no box" manufacturing strategy (processing different parts of the car separately, only assembling each component together in the final stage, aiming to reduce costs and factory footprint), with plans to achieve mass production by 2024; The design style is futuristic, possibly similar to Cybertruck; Musk also hinted that he may showcase some additional content at the unveiling event.
Musk said that the single ride cost of Tesla's self driving taxi will be similar to the bus fare
The revelations from technology media, automotive bloggers, and others have also created more topics for this new car, such as——
Cybercab is based on the "Model 2" (a consumer car model that pursues ultimate cost-effectiveness, still under development, resembling the more compact Model Y, without an official name, known as Model 2 by the outside world), and is estimated to have 2 seats, with lower manufacturing costs and energy consumption; Tesla will release Cybercab at Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles (the filming location of "Interstellar"). According to studio staff, a small vehicle with a unique shape and layers of camouflage appeared in the Tesla fleet (see picture below), with two doors and two seats, covered by yellow tape, and a box shaped protrusion at the rear of the vehicle to conceal the curves of the body. The roof is suspected to have a LiDAR protrusion, but increasing the exposure of the photo reveals that the steering wheel still exists.
Whether it's Cybercab spy photos, teaser posters, or the product roadmap recently provided by Tesla's AI team - expected to launch FSD services in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, all kinds of news seem to be telling everyone, 'We're holding back a lot.'.
Tesla's current product line (Model S, X, 3, Y, Tesla Semi, and Cybertruck) also includes three hidden models under development.
Years of planning suddenly accelerate
In 2016, Tesla announced its second ten-year plan, the "Master Plan, Part Deux," in which Musk first mentioned the vision of autonomous taxis and "shared mobility": in the future, autonomous driving technology will allow Tesla owners to rent out their cars when they are not in use; In 2019, Musk first referred to these future cars as autonomous taxis and promised to have one million such cars on the road by 2020.
This year, Musk pressed the accelerator button for his autonomous taxi business.
The incident began with two internal meetings in February, during which Tesla's R&D team showcased the early development results of the "Model 2" and Robotaxi to Musk. Regarding the "Model 2", Musk revealed during the quarterly earnings conference call on January 24th that the car is expected to be officially put into production in the second half of 2025, with an estimated price of around $25000.
With the basic confirmation of the "schedule" for "Model 2" and the development progress ahead of the Robotaxi model, Musk made the decision to change the original plan and launch the Robotaxi model first.
According to The Information, a former employee reported that over the weekend, Musk's main subordinates conveyed new instructions to their team that the "Model 2" project was temporarily put on hold. This decision was very sudden and left many employees puzzled, as Robotaxi was still just a concept at the time. A former mid-level executive at Tesla exclaimed, "He's like turning a barge into a speedboat
According to several former Tesla employees, Tesla plans to use similar batteries, motors, and other innovative technologies in these two models, aiming to reduce design and production costs and shorten engineering cycles.
It is not surprising that Musk prefers the autonomous driving business over the "Model 2". As early as in "Tesla Blueprint Sequel," he stated that a low-cost car cheaper than the Model 3 was "unlikely to be necessary," and he never confirmed the name "Model 2. The Verge reported that earlier this year, Musk was largely pressured by investors to refocus on developing the "Model 2" and promised to launch lower cost models in the coming years.
Martin Weicha, who was then Tesla's head of investment relations, also spoke volumes about Robotaxi's positioning. He stated at the Goldman Sachs Technology Summit in 2022 that Model X and Model S were Tesla's first generation platforms, Model 3 and Model Y were the second generation, and Robotaxi's business would become the third generation platform.
Profit model to be tested, regulatory barriers to overcome?
Musk has repeatedly expressed his desire to provide people with the lowest cost per mile of transportation through Robotaxi and FSD. At the 2019 Autonomous Driving Day event, it was estimated that "the cost of someone driving a taxi today is $2-3 per mile, while the single mile cost of Robotaxi is only $0.18
To achieve the goal of lower fares than human taxis or even public transportation, it is necessary to scale up the business and minimize costs.
It is reported that through improvements in appearance design and assembly technology, the unit price of Tesla Robotaxi may be reduced to below 150000 yuan. In addition, according to Musk's vision, consumers who purchase Tesla Robotaxis can not only use them for personal purposes, but also earn money from the car as a taxi driver. Owners who join the Robotaxi fleet can earn $30000 annually. This idea completely overturned the business model of "self operated, self purchased, and self operated" in the Robotaxi industry in the past.
According to Huaxin Securities' calculation, Robotaxi's single bike profit model will be realized around 2027. From the perspectives of revenue and cost, the main drivers of cost reduction are reflected in the decrease in hardware costs and the improvement of intelligent driving capabilities, which leads to a decrease in the cost of remote safety personnel for bicycles; From the perspective of revenue, with the improvement of Robotaxi's operating hours and the decrease in empty driving rate, it is expected to achieve a balance between single vehicle profitability and cost by 2027.
However, the ideal is beautiful, and compliance remains a major challenge in the scaling process of Tesla Robotaxi.
For example, "no steering wheel and pedals" is a possible major innovation point for Tesla Robotaxi. The Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) in the United States require vehicles to be equipped with basic manual control devices, such as steering wheel, pedals, and side mirrors. Tesla has not yet obtained an exemption from FMVSS.
Tesla admitted in a letter to shareholders that it needs approval from the US federal government to deploy the more aggressive Robotaxi design, and its statement is quite vague, "Although the deployment time of RoboTaxi depends on technological progress and regulatory approval, given its enormous potential value, we are actively taking advantage of this opportunity