Under the impact of demand concerns, international oil prices fell again on the evening of September 10th - the main contract of WTI crude oil futures plummeted 3.49% to close at $66.31, hitting a new low since March last year. The next day, oil prices rebounded weakly and closed at $67.38.
In terms of news, the latest monthly report released by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) shows that the organization has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in the next two years, marking its second consecutive downward adjustment of expectations. OPEC predicts that world oil demand will increase by 2.03 million barrels per day in 2024, lower than last month's forecast of 2.11 million barrels per day growth.
Another factor contributing to the recent continuous decline in oil prices is that the important economic data released by the United States did not meet expectations. The August non farm payroll report released by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of non farm employed people in the United States increased by 142000, which was lower than the expected 165000. The July data was significantly revised down from 114000 to 89000, and the June data was revised down by 61000.
Diane Swank, Chief Economist of KPMG's US division, analyzed that the current level of weakness in the US labor market is approaching that of an economic recession.
David Rosenberg, an economist at Rosenberg Research in the United States, said, "Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we track have been triggered. If we trace back to 1999, once such a situation occurs, a recession will definitely happen
With weak economic growth, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are heating up. Recently, the options trading market has shown that traders are increasingly preparing for a total rate cut of 150 basis points by the Federal Reserve from September to January next year.
Nathan Janzen, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, predicts that although the economy has not yet collapsed to the point where the Federal Reserve is panicking, it is becoming increasingly apparent that interest rates are already higher than they need to be. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will initiate a 25 basis point rate cut cycle at this month's meeting.