A strategist at investment bank Lazard said that former US President Donald Trump's plan to impose comprehensive tariffs on foreign produced goods could reignite the risk of high inflation and low US economic growth, posing a threat to the US stock market.
As far as the tariff policy he is discussing is concerned, not taking Trump seriously is risky, "Ronald Temple, the chief stock strategist of the bank, said in an interview." The impact on inflation, economic growth, the US dollar, interest rates, Federal Reserve policies, and corporate profits is very significant. If stagflation eventually occurs, it is difficult to imagine that the stock market will rise even higher
For a long time, Republican presidential candidate Trump has been pursuing protectionist trade policies. In this election, he repeatedly declared to impose a universal 10% tariff on imported goods from all countries and a 60% or higher tariff on goods from China.
Goldman Sachs previously stated that if Trump wins the election, tariffs may once again exacerbate inflation and trigger interest rates to be 130 basis points higher than before.
Temple stated that the current economic background makes it difficult to infer investors' strategies from Trump's previous presidency. Although inflation has cooled down, it is still higher than the Fed's long-term target interest rate, and weak macroeconomic data has raised concerns about an economic recession.
In all previous elections, my advice to clients was not to be too nervous, because usually they don't really change the situation economically. This time is different
The strategist stated that a major difference between now and 2016 is the scope of the proposed trade policy. He said, "During Trump's first term, the average tariff rate on imported goods to the United States increased from 1.5% to 3%. But what he is saying now will bring the average tariff rate closer to 20%. This is a big challenge
Brian Hughes, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign team, argued that the former president's "policies will drive economic growth, lower inflation, incentivize American manufacturing, while protecting our nation's working class from the effects of imbalanced policies tilted towards other countries
Temple said that if Trump wins, investors will have to start practicing how to invest in a higher tariff environment.
What you really need to start thinking about is how to identify vulnerabilities in different companies' supply chains, "he said.
This strategist predicts that Trump's election as president will trigger industry rotation rather than a correction in the entire S&P 500 index.
The most obvious Trump deals are in finance, energy, and some healthcare, and the losers will be anyone with truly extensive global supply chains. There are also opportunities in the consumer goods and infrastructure sectors, "he added.
Finally, Temple added that Harris' election as president may not have a negative impact on the economy, mainly because he expects Republicans to gain control of the Senate and weaken many of her major proposals, particularly in taxation.