On the evening of September 16th local time, the US stock market opened and Apple fell nearly 3% at one point. As of the close, Apple's stock price fell 2.78% to $216.32 per share, and its market value evaporated by $93.9 billion (approximately RMB 665.7 billion) overnight, with a total market value of $3.29 trillion.
On the news front, analyst Guo Mingchi from Tianfeng International stated that the estimated pre order sales of iPhone 16 series in the first weekend were about 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% compared to the first weekend sales of iPhone 15 series last year. The key reason is that the iPhone 16 Pro series was lower than expected.
Guo Mingchi pointed out that the shipment time of iPhone 16 Pro series is significantly lower than that of 15 Pro series. In addition to the increase in stock before pre order, the key factor is that the demand is lower than expected, as seen from the year-on-year decrease in sales in the first weekend. It is worth noting that the sales of iPhone 16 Plus and iPhone 16 increased during their first weekend, but their contribution to improving overall iPhone shipments was limited.
Analysts from companies such as Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the delivery time may indicate a lower demand for the iPhone 16 Pro model in the market compared to the previous year.
Affected by the above news, Apple concept stocks in Hong Kong fell on September 16th. As of yesterday's close, Qiuti Technology fell 4.33% to HKD 4.2 per share; Gaowei Electronics fell 1.44%, and Tongda Group fell 2.82%. And with the release of Apple's new products on September 9th at $3.359 trillion, Apple's market value evaporated by $69 billion (approximately 490 billion yuan) within a week.
Previously, market analysis predicted that the artificial intelligence features on the new Apple iPhone 16 series phones would help drive consumers to upgrade their devices, as these tools are only available on newer models of iPhone 15 Pro and above.
According to a report by Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, the iPhone 16 will be a huge; quot; Upgrade opportunities& quot;。 He expects that Apple will welcome; quot; Super cycle& quot;， Because there have been approximately 300 million iPhones waiting to be upgraded in the past four years.
However, judging from the current reaction in the Chinese market, it has become easier for major channels to "grab goods" compared to the past, and subsidies from major e-commerce platforms are also increasing. In the official flagship store of Apple Store on Tmall, the iPhone 16 Standard Edition series still has its first batch of supply after a period of pre order, and whether it is through official channels or authorized dealers, the time difference in stocking and shipping for iPhone 16 series sellers seems to be disappearing.
On September 13, on the Tiktok platform, several pages introduced the live broadcast for the account of "Apple authorized dealer". The main selling points introduced by the anchor were the upgrade of the camera function of iPhone 16, the improvement of its endurance, and the choice of multiple colors. The number of online people in each live broadcast room ranged from 5000 to 10000. The page information showed that the iPhone 16 ordered by consumers in the live broadcast room would be shipped successively at 8:00 a.m. on September 20, and shipped on September 22 at the latest, with compensation for late delivery. In addition, the reporter checked the JD platform and found that the expected delivery and delivery time of iPhone 16 in Beijing is September 20th, which is synchronized with the time on Apple's official website.
In addition, a First Financial reporter recently visited the Huaqiangbei market and saw that the iPhone 16 series phone cases have been launched. There have been some changes compared to before, so our overall stock volume has increased by about 10% this year, but mainly in the Pro version, "a seller in the Seg Communication market told reporters." If Apple doesn't change anymore, the Chinese market will soon be eaten up by domestic phones.
Last year's overall sales were not good, and Huawei's return has had a significant impact on Apple, "the seller of the aforementioned store told reporters.
According to the financial report, in the fiscal quarter ending at the end of June this year, iPhone remained Apple's most important business, but its proportion of total sales has dropped to around 46%. In the fiscal year ending in September last year, iPhone revenue was $20.6 billion, lower than the previous year's $205.5 billion.
The sluggish growth in the Chinese market is another important factor contributing to weak iPhone sales. In the past quarter, iPhone sales in the Chinese market decreased by 6.5%. Apple has offered greater discounts in the Chinese market to cope with competition from local rivals such as Huawei. The company offered discounts of up to 2300 yuan on some models in May.
It is worth noting that on the day after Apple's press conference, Huawei released a three screen foldable phone on September 10th, aiming to expand its leading advantage over Apple in the world's largest smartphone market. In the Chinese smartphone market, Apple's ranking has dropped from the previous third place to sixth place, with a 2% year-on-year decrease in market share, but still holding a 14% market share.
On the same day, Huawei's website showed that the pre order volume of this new smartphone had exceeded 3.3 million. By contrast, data from research firm IDC shows that the global foldable phone market totaled approximately 4 million units in the second quarter.
Deng Zhijian, Director of Investment Strategy at DBS Bank China, told First Financial reporters:; quot; The recent announcement of Huawei's new products will prompt domestic consumers to take a wait-and-see attitude and also encourage investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, Apple's new product has not received as enthusiastic response in China as before, because if we only look at the functions that can be used domestically, there is indeed a lack of creativity, and many of them are upgrades to existing functions& amp;quot;
However, research firm Counterpoint analyst Jene Park pointed out that in terms of the quantity of Huawei product sales and supply, it is not expected to have a significant impact on Apple's overall business, but may have some impact on sales in markets such as China.
Guo Mingchi predicts that Apple's iPhone shipments will significantly decrease by about 38% in 2024, from 310 million units in 2023 to around 200 million units. He believes that Apple's lack of innovation in iPhone products in recent years is one of the main reasons for consumers' lower expectations for new products.
However, Guo Mingchi believes that although the sales of the Pro series are lower than expected, there will not be much change in the production plan of the supply chain in the short term. Apple still has the opportunity to increase sales after the launch of Apple Intelligence and subsequent peak season promotions (China Singles' Day).
He also stated that if Apple Intelligence, which will be launched in the fourth quarter of 2024, and Double 11 do not significantly increase sales of the iPhone 16 series, Apple will adopt a more aggressive product strategy in 2025 to boost market demand.
It is worth mentioning that according to the reporter's understanding, in order to boost sales in China, relevant supply chain executives from Apple will visit the Chinese supply chain on September 18th. At the same time, Apple will preheat the new iPhone 16 series in the near future.